Tropical Storm Philippe Graphics

Thu, 05 Oct 2023 02:43:06 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 05 Oct 2023 02:43:06 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 05 Oct 2023 03:23:08 GMT

Tropical Storm Philippe Forecast Discussion Number 47

Thu, 05 Oct 2023 02:42:11 GMT

Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Oct 04 2023

000
WTNT42 KNHC 050242
TCDAT2
 
Tropical Storm Philippe Discussion Number  47
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172023
1100 PM AST Wed Oct 04 2023
 
Philippe has generally changed little during the past several hours. 
The storm still resembles an elongated trough in satellite images 
with a north-south oriented area of deep convection extending a 
couple of hundred north and several hundred miles south of the 
center.  Areas of heavy rain continue to linger near Puerto Rico and 
the Virgin Islands.  Since the system appears to be steady in 
strength, the initial intensity is held at 35 kt based on the 
earlier aicraft data.  This wind speed estimate is also in line with 
the latest satellite intensity estimates.

The storm is moving northward at 11 kt in the flow between a ridge 
over the central Atlantic and a mid- to upper-level low off the 
Florida coast.  This northward motion with an increase in forward 
speed is expected during the next few days, taking the center 
of the system across Bermuda in 36-48 hours.  Philippe will likely 
turn northwestward into Maine and Atlantic Canada this weekend when 
another trough cuts off over the northeastern U.S.  The NHC track 
forecast is similar to the previous one and near the middle of the 
guidance envelope.

Nearly all of the models show slow strengthening during the next 2 
or 3 days, which seems to be due to baroclinic influences from the 
trough/low currently east of Florida.  The mid- to upper-level 
trough/low will likely merge with Philippe in 48-60 hours, which 
should cause the system to develop frontal features and become 
extratropical after it passes Bermuda.  The post-tropical cyclone 
is expected to weaken once it moves inland over Maine and Atlantic 
Canada.  The NHC intensity forecast also lies near the middle of 
the guidance envelope.
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda beginning
Thursday night, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. Heavy 
rainfall will begin to affect the island on Thursday.
 
2. Philippe is likely to move over portions of Atlantic Canada and
eastern New England, likely as a post-tropical cyclone, this
weekend.  Regardless of Philippe's intensity or structure, interests
in those areas should monitor the storm's progress and be prepared
for the possibility of strong winds and heavy rainfall.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  05/0300Z 23.8N  66.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  05/1200Z 25.4N  66.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  06/0000Z 28.4N  66.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  06/1200Z 31.9N  65.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  07/0000Z 35.3N  66.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  07/1200Z 39.0N  66.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  08/0000Z 43.3N  67.1W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  09/0000Z 51.6N  73.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  10/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
 

Summary for Tropical Storm Philippe (AT2/AL172023)

Thu, 05 Oct 2023 02:38:37 GMT

...PHILIPPE STILL PRODUCING RAINS IN PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON BERMUDA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY... As of 11:00 PM AST Wed Oct 4 the center of Philippe was located near 23.8, -66.1 with movement N at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Tropical Storm Philippe Public Advisory Number 47

Thu, 05 Oct 2023 02:38:37 GMT

Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Oct 04 2023

000
WTNT32 KNHC 050238
TCPAT2
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Philippe Advisory Number  47
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172023
1100 PM AST Wed Oct 04 2023
 
...PHILIPPE STILL PRODUCING RAINS IN PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN 
ISLANDS...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON BERMUDA THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.8N 66.1W
ABOUT 380 MI...610 KM N OF ST. THOMAS
ABOUT 590 MI...955 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
Interests in eastern New England and Atlantic Canada should monitor
the progress of Philippe.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was
located near latitude 23.8 North, longitude 66.1 West. Philippe is
moving toward the north near 13 mph (20 km/h). This general motion
with an increase in forward speed is expected through Saturday.  On
the forecast track, the center of Philippe will pass near Bermuda 
on Friday, and approach eastern New England and Atlantic Canada on 
Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher 
gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next few days.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Philippe can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml
 
RAINFALL:  Rainfall will begin to affect Bermuda on Thursday with 
rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches expected through Friday.

These rainfall amounts could result in scattered flash flooding.

Rainfall across Puerto Rico and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands 
should diminish on Thursday.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda beginning
Thursday night.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Philippe will affect portions of the
Atlantic coasts of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands,
and Puerto Rico for another day or so.  Large swells are already
affecting Bermuda from another weather system but will begin to
increase further on Thursday as Philippe approaches the island.
These conditions are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
currents. Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
 

Tropical Storm Philippe Wind Speed Probabilities Number 47

Thu, 05 Oct 2023 02:38:37 GMT

Issued at 0300 UTC THU OCT 05 2023

000
FONT12 KNHC 050238
PWSAT2
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  47         
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172023               
0300 UTC THU OCT 05 2023                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE WAS LOCATED NEAR     
LATITUDE 23.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
EDDY POINT NS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
SABLE ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
HALIFAX NS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
YARMOUTH NS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  31(31)   5(36)   X(36)
YARMOUTH NS    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   3( 9)   X( 9)
 
MONCTON NB     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   X( 6)
 
ST JOHN NB     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  17(17)  12(29)   X(29)
ST JOHN NB     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)
 
EASTPORT ME    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  19(19)  14(33)   X(33)
EASTPORT ME    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   X( 7)
 
BAR HARBOR ME  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   7(14)   X(14)
 
AUGUSTA ME     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   4( 8)   X( 8)
 
PORTLAND ME    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)
 
PORTSMOUTH NH  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
HYANNIS MA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
NANTUCKET MA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
PROVIDENCE RI  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
BERMUDA        34  X   1( 1)  30(31)  11(42)   X(42)   X(42)   X(42)
BERMUDA        50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI                                               

Tropical Storm Philippe Forecast Advisory Number 47

Thu, 05 Oct 2023 02:36:08 GMT

Issued at 0300 UTC THU OCT 05 2023

000
WTNT22 KNHC 050236
TCMAT2
 
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  47
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172023
0300 UTC THU OCT 05 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.8N  66.1W AT 05/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT  11 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 180SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..135NE 120SE  30SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.8N  66.1W AT 05/0300Z
AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.2N  66.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 25.4N  66.3W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...100NE 150SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 28.4N  66.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 150SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 31.9N  65.9W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 150SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 35.3N  66.4W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...180NE 180SE   0SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 39.0N  66.7W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...240NE 210SE  90SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 43.3N  67.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...180NE 240SE  60SW  80NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 51.6N  73.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.8N  66.1W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 05/0600Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
 
 

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

Wed, 04 Oct 2023 23:44:04 GMT

000
ABNT20 KNHC 042343
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Oct 4 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Philippe, located a few hundred miles north of the Virgin
Islands.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa in
a few days. Some slow development of this system is possible
thereafter while it moves westward across the eastern tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi