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Hurricane Preparedness Plan

NHC Status Updates

Tropical Weather Outlook

Tropical Depression Imelda Public Advisory Number 7

Thu, 19 Sep 2019 02:57:15 GMT

The NHC has issued its final advisory on this system. Public Advisories from the Weather Prediction Center will provide updates as long as the system remains a flood threat. Issued at 1000 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019

Hurricane Humberto Forecast Discussion Number 26

Thu, 19 Sep 2019 02:55:28 GMT

Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 18 2019


000
WTNT44 KNHC 190255
TCDAT4

Hurricane Humberto Discussion Number  26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092019
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 18 2019

Normal communications with the Bermuda Weather Service have been
restored.  However, the weather radar on Bermuda is currently down.

The center of Humberto made its closest approach to Bermuda a few
hours ago, with many weather stations on the island reporting
sustained hurricane force winds and gusts near or over 100 kt.
Since that time, an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft has
arrived at the storm and reported little change in strength despite
a decaying appearance in satellite imagery.  The SFMR surface wind
estimates were in the 100-105 kt range to the west of the center,
and the central pressure was near 952 mb.  Based on these data,
the initial intensity is held at a possibly conservative 105 kt.

The decay in the satellite signature is due to Humberto starting to
undergo extratropical transition, a process that the global models
forecast to be complete by 36 h.  Those models forecast that the
cyclone should steadily weaken during and after the transition
until it is absorbed by another low pressure system between 96-120
h, and the intensity forecast follows this scenario.  The new
intensity forecast is basically an update of the previous forecast,
with a slightly faster decrease in intensity during the first 48 h.

The initial motion is now 055/20.  Humberto is forecast to turn
north-northeastward as it becomes extratropical, followed by a turn
back toward the east-northeastward as the extratropical low is
steered by the mid-latitude westerlies.  The track guidance
remains tightly clustered, and the new forecast track has only
minor adjustments from the previous forecast.


Key Messages:

1.  Tropical-storm conditions on Bermuda should subside during the
next several hours.

2. Storm surge and dangerous breaking waves, while diminishing,
could cause coastal flooding tonight and Thursday along the coast of
Bermuda.

3. Swells will continue to affect the northwestern Bahamas and the
southeastern coast of the United States from east-central Florida to
North Carolina during the next couple of days, creating life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/0300Z 34.0N  63.9W  105 KT 120 MPH
 12H  19/1200Z 35.8N  61.6W   95 KT 110 MPH
 24H  20/0000Z 38.5N  59.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  20/1200Z 40.7N  58.8W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  21/0000Z 42.4N  56.1W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  22/0000Z 45.0N  41.7W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  23/0000Z 50.0N  25.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  24/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

Hurricane Humberto Wind Speed Probabilities Number 26

Thu, 19 Sep 2019 02:54:27 GMT

Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 19 2019


000
FONT14 KNHC 190254
PWSAT4
                                                                    
HURRICANE HUMBERTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  26              
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092019               
0300 UTC THU SEP 19 2019                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HUMBERTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 
34.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
105 KTS...120 MPH...195 KM/H.                                       
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
HIBERNIA OILFD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
CAPE RACE NFLD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
ILE ST PIERRE  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
SYDNEY NS      34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
SABLE ISLAND   34  X   1( 1)  20(21)   3(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)
 
BERMUDA        34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
BERMUDA        50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
BERMUDA        64 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BEVEN                                                    

Summary for Hurricane Humberto (AT4/AL092019)

Thu, 19 Sep 2019 02:53:56 GMT

...CENTER OF HUMBERTO MOVING AWAY FROM BERMUDA... ...TROPICAL-STORM-CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS BERMUDA INTO THURSDAY MORNING... As of 11:00 PM AST Wed Sep 18 the center of Humberto was located near 34.0, -63.9 with movement NE at 23 mph. The minimum central pressure was 952 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 120 mph.

Hurricane Humberto Public Advisory Number 26

Thu, 19 Sep 2019 02:53:56 GMT

Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 18 2019


000
WTNT34 KNHC 190253
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Humberto Advisory Number  26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092019
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 18 2019

...CENTER OF HUMBERTO MOVING AWAY FROM BERMUDA...
...TROPICAL-STORM-CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS BERMUDA INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.0N 63.9W
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM NNE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Bermuda Weather Service has changed the Hurricane Warning to a
Tropical Storm Warning for Bermuda.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area, in this case during the next
several hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Humberto was
located near latitude 34.0 North, longitude 63.9 West. Humberto is
moving toward the northeast near 23 mph (37 km/h).  This
general motion is expected to continue through Thursday, followed
by a north-northeastward motion at a slower forward speed Thursday
night and Friday.  A turn toward the east-northeast is expected
Friday night and Saturday.  On the forecast track, the center of
Humberto will continue to move away from Bermuda tonight.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 120 mph (195 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Humberto is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.  The hurricane should start to
weaken later tonight, and it is expected to become a post-tropical
cyclone by Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 220
miles (350 km).  Several stations on Bermuda are reporting sustained
winds of 40-50 mph (65-80 km/h) with higher gusts.

The minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is 952 mb (28.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Humberto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

WIND:  Tropical-storm-force winds will persist on Bermuda into late
Thursday morning.

RAINFALL:  Humberto may bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda
through Thursday, with rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches with
maximum amounts of 6 inches expected.

SURF:  Large swells and dangerous surf generated by Humberto will
continue along the coast of Bermuda through Thursday, and these
could cause coastal flooding.

Swells will continue to affect the northwestern Bahamas and the
southeastern coast of the United States from east-central Florida to
North Carolina during the next couple of days.

These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office
and the Bermuda Weather Service.

STORM SURGE:  Storm surge along the coast of Bermuda should subside
tonight and Thursday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

Hurricane Humberto Forecast Advisory Number 26

Thu, 19 Sep 2019 02:53:56 GMT

Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 19 2019


000
WTNT24 KNHC 190253
TCMAT4

HURRICANE HUMBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092019
0300 UTC THU SEP 19 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING TO A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BERMUDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.0N  63.9W AT 19/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  55 DEGREES AT  20 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  952 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE  80SE  70SW  60NW.
50 KT.......100NE 120SE 100SW 100NW.
34 KT.......170NE 190SE 150SW 160NW.
12 FT SEAS..420NE 420SE 780SW 420NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.0N  63.9W AT 19/0300Z
AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.2N  65.0W

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 35.8N  61.6W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  80SE  70SW  60NW.
50 KT...100NE 120SE 100SW 110NW.
34 KT...180NE 190SE 160SW 250NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 38.5N  59.8W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  80SE  70SW  60NW.
50 KT...100NE 120SE 100SW 110NW.
34 KT...190NE 190SE 160SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 40.7N  58.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  90SE  70SW  60NW.
50 KT...100NE 120SE 100SW 100NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 150SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 42.4N  56.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 100SE  90SW  90NW.
34 KT...200NE 190SE 150SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 45.0N  41.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...200NE 180SE 150SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 50.0N  25.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.0N  63.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 19/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


Tropical Storm Jerry Graphics

Thu, 19 Sep 2019 02:43:54 GMT

Tropical Storm Jerry 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 02:43:54 GMT

Tropical Storm Jerry 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2019 02:43:54 GMT

Tropical Storm Jerry Forecast Discussion Number 7

Thu, 19 Sep 2019 02:40:56 GMT

Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 18 2019


000
WTNT45 KNHC 190240
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102019
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 18 2019

Jerry is gradually becoming better organized, with a small circular
CDO and some banding features over its northwestern quadrant.
Although the storm has some modest upper-level outflow, there
is evidence of west-northwesterly winds undercutting the system
just below the outflow layer.  An upper-level cyclone is located a
few hundred miles to the northwest of Jerry, as confirmed by
synoptic surveillance observations taken recently by the NOAA G-IV
jet.  However, the global models suggest that this feature should
remain far enough to the north of the tropical cyclone so that its
shearing influence will be minimal in the short term.  The current
intensity estimate is 55 kt based on Dvorak classifications from
TAFB and SAB.  Since the environment is likely to be modestly
conducive during the next day or so, strengthening is predicted for
the next 24 hours.  Thereafter, the dynamical guidance shows some
increase in shear, which should result in a leveling off of
Jerry's intensity.  Later in the forecast period, the global models
predict a significant increase in shear, so some weakening is
likely.  The official intensity forecast is close to the
multi-model consensus.

The storm remains on track with the motion continuing around 290/13
kt.  There are no important changes to the track forecast from the
previous advisory.  Jerry should move along the southwestern
periphery of a subtropical ridge over the next couple of days.  In
3-5 days, the tropical cyclone is likely to turn northwest,
north-northwest, and eventually north following a weakness in the
ridge near 70-75W longitude.  The official track forecast is close
to the latest corrected multi-model consensus guidance.

Key Messages:

1. Jerry is expected to become a hurricane before it moves close to
the northern Leeward Islands Friday. Although the core of Jerry is
currently expected to pass north of the islands, tropical-storm-
force winds and locally heavy rainfall are possible, and tropical
storm watches have been issued for a portion of this area.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/0300Z 15.4N  51.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  19/1200Z 16.2N  53.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  20/0000Z 17.3N  56.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  20/1200Z 18.5N  59.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  21/0000Z 19.7N  62.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  22/0000Z 22.4N  67.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  23/0000Z 25.7N  70.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  24/0000Z 29.0N  69.0W   65 KT  75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Tropical Storm Jerry Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7

Thu, 19 Sep 2019 02:40:39 GMT

Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 19 2019


000
FONT15 KNHC 190240
PWSAT5
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM JERRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   7            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102019               
0300 UTC THU SEP 19 2019                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JERRY WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H.                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)
 
SAN SALVADOR   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   1( 7)
 
MAYAGUANA      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   1(10)
 
GRAND TURK     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  10(15)   1(16)
GRAND TURK     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)
 
PUERTO PLATA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   1( 7)
 
PONCE PR       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
AGUADILLA PR   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
SAN JUAN PR    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
VIEQUES PR     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  10(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
SAINT THOMAS   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)  13(20)   X(20)   X(20)
SAINT THOMAS   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
SAINT THOMAS   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
SAINT CROIX    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   7(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
SAINT MAARTEN  34  X   X( X)   3( 3)  21(24)   4(28)   X(28)   X(28)
SAINT MAARTEN  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   2( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
SAINT MAARTEN  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
SABA           34  X   X( X)   3( 3)  10(13)   3(16)   X(16)   X(16)
SABA           50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ST EUSTATIUS   34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   9(12)   3(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   7(10)   3(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
BARBUDA        34  X   1( 1)   5( 6)  16(22)   1(23)   X(23)   X(23)
BARBUDA        50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
BARBUDA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
ANTIGUA        34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   6(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
GUADELOUPE     34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
AVES           34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
DOMINICA       34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
MARTINIQUE     34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH                                                    

Tropical Storm Jerry Public Advisory Number 7

Thu, 19 Sep 2019 02:40:00 GMT

Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 18 2019


000
WTNT35 KNHC 190239
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102019
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 18 2019

...JERRY STRENGTHENING...
...LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE SOON...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.4N 51.8W
ABOUT 675 MI...1085 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barbuda
* Anguilla
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin
* St. Barthelemy
* Saba and St. Eustatius

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor
the progress of Jerry.  Additional watches could be issued on
Thursday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was
located near latitude 15.4 North, longitude 51.8 West. Jerry is
moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h).  A west-
northwest motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected over
the next few days.  On the forecast track, the center of Jerry will
be near or north of the northern Leeward Islands Friday and pass
north of Puerto Rico on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Jerry is forecast to become a hurricane on
Thursday, with little change in strength anticipated on Friday or
Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
areas by early Friday.

RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 1 to 2 inches with maximum amounts of 3 inches across the
northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico.

SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are forecast to affect portions
of the northern Leeward Islands by late Thursday.  These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Tropical Storm Jerry Forecast Advisory Number 7

Thu, 19 Sep 2019 02:39:29 GMT

Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 19 2019


000
WTNT25 KNHC 190239
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102019
0300 UTC THU SEP 19 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBUDA
* ANGUILLA
* ST. MAARTEN
* ST. MARTIN
* ST. BARTHELEMY
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF JERRY.  ADDITIONAL WATCHES COULD BE ISSUED ON
THURSDAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N  51.8W AT 19/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  90SE  90SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N  51.8W AT 19/0300Z
AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N  51.2W

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 16.2N  53.9W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  10SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 17.3N  56.7W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  10SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 18.5N  59.7W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  10SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  30SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 19.7N  62.7W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  10SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  80SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 22.4N  67.3W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  80SE  40SW  70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 25.7N  70.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 29.0N  69.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N  51.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 19/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

Hurricane Humberto Graphics

Wed, 18 Sep 2019 23:58:16 GMT

Hurricane Humberto 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 18 Sep 2019 23:58:16 GMT

Hurricane Humberto 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 18 Sep 2019 21:25:04 GMT

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

Wed, 18 Sep 2019 23:52:55 GMT


968
ABNT20 KNHC 182352
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Humberto, located just to the north of Bermuda, and on Tropical
Storm Jerry, located several hundred miles east of the Leeward
Islands.

A tropical wave located about 850 miles west of the Cabo Verde
Islands is producing disorganized cloudiness and showers. Some
development of this system is possible while the system approaches
the Windward Islands this weekend or when it moves across the
southeastern Caribbean Sea early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms near and to
the south-southeast of the Dominican Republic is associated with a
tropical wave. While upper-level winds are not forecast to be
conducive for significant development, locally heavy rainfall is
possible over portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti during
the next couple of days. The disturbance is forecast to move slowly
northwestward through the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Summary for Tropical Storm Jerry (AT5/AL102019)

Wed, 18 Sep 2019 21:08:26 GMT

...JERRY STRENGTHENING... ...LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE SOON... As of 11:00 PM AST Wed Sep 18 the center of Jerry was located near 15.4, -51.8 with movement WNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Please Make Sure

Please make sure the information below is accurate and up to date.  This is the information that the property management staff will use in case of emergency and/or hurricane.  Thank you for ensuring we have the latest information.

Emergency Preparedness

TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE PREPARATION

Hurricane season begins June 1st of each year and ends November 30th. Florida can be threatened any time during this season.  This information will help you prepare for a hurricane. Please take the time to read this information carefully.

The following are some useful definitions:

• TROPICAL DEPRESSION has winds of less than 39 miles per hour or 34 knots.
• TROPICAL STORM has winds from 39 to 73 miles per hour or 34 to 63 knots.
• TROPICAL STORM “WARNING” once issued, can develop into a hurricane. 
• HURRICANE “WATCH” - a hurricane may threaten the area within 24-36 hours.
• HURRICANE “WARNING” - a hurricane is expected to strike the area within 24 hours or less.
• HURRICANE has winds of greater than 74 miles per hour or 64 knots.
            Category 1 74-95 MPH Minimal
            Category 2 95-110 MPH Moderate
            Category 3 111-130 Major
            Category 4 131-155 Extensive
            Category 5 156 MPH + Catastrophic

WHAT CAN YOU DO TO BE READY IN THE EVENT OF A DISASTER?

Before the Storm
Preparing in advance for hurricane season can determine not only how safely and comfortably you ride out the storm, but also how easily it is to handle the days and weeks after the storm has passed.  Take a look at the information collected below to learn how you can prepare in the days and weeks before a hurricane.

Plan your stay or evacuation:
Stay Home
: However, before you choose this option, make sure you know your elevation. If we experience a storm that may put a significant storm surge in your home, you need to look at the other options. Also, people in manufactured and mobile homes cannot use this option. Mobile homes and manufactured homes are not built to withstand the high winds associated with tropical storms and hurricanes.

Stay With a Friend or Relative Who has a Safe Place: If this is your plan, make arrangements in advance. You need to make sure that where you are going is safe. It defeats the purpose of evacuating if you go to an unsafe place.

Relocate Out of the Area: You may wish to travel out of harm’s way. Be sure to bring a road map and make sure that your car is full of fuel. Stay away from major bodies of water. Make arrangements in advance if you can. If you decide to use this option, go early, traffic will be heavy if you leave at the last minute, and you may not make it to your destination.

Emergency Public Shelters: For more information on Emergency Shelters and a list of available Public Shelters please visit a county Public Library or Publix Super Market near you.

Have a 72-Hour Survival Kit
You should plan to be self-sufficient for at least 72 hours (3 days) during and after a disaster. You should anticipate no water, electrical power, or utilities for that period of time. To ensure the comfort of your family, whether at home or evacuated to another location please download and print the Hurricane Survival Kit (PDF).