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Hurricane Preparedness Plan

Tropical Weather Outlook

Tropical Storm Ian Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map

Thu, 29 Sep 2022 09:01:10 GMT

Tropical Storm Ian Link to Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Thu, 29 Sep 2022 09:01:10 GMT

Tropical Storm Ian Graphics

Thu, 29 Sep 2022 09:00:32 GMT

Tropical Storm Ian 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 29 Sep 2022 09:00:32 GMT

Tropical Storm Ian 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 29 Sep 2022 09:00:32 GMT

Tropical Storm Ian Forecast Discussion Number 27

Thu, 29 Sep 2022 08:59:40 GMT

Issued at 500 AM EDT Thu Sep 29 2022


000
WTNT44 KNHC 290859
TCDAT4
 
Tropical Storm Ian Discussion Number  27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092022
500 AM EDT Thu Sep 29 2022
 
Ian's center continues to move northeastward across central Florida, 
and nearly all of the heavy rains are located to the north over 
northeastern Florida.  NWS WSR-88D Doppler velocities from the
Melbourne and Tampa radars have decreased significantly since last
evening, and based on that data, Ian is now a tropical storm with 
maximum sustained winds of 55 kt.  This intensity is also supported 
by wind observations across Florida, with the highest recent 
sustained wind being 52 kt at New Smyrna Beach.

Ian's current motion is northeastward, or 040/7 kt.  The tail end 
of a deep-layer trough is expected to detach from the main trough 
axis over the southeastern United States during the next 24 to 48 
hours, and Ian is forecast to move around the eastern periphery of 
this feature, turning north-northeastward later today and then 
north-northwestward by Friday night.  In this scenario, Ian should 
move off the east coast of Florida later today, and then swing 
northward toward the South Carolina coast during the next 36 hours 
or so.  Although there is some cross-track spread in the guidance, 
they all agree on this general scenario, and the NHC track forecast 
lies where most of the models are packed.  No significant changes 
were made to the previous prediction.

Little change in intensity is forecast during the next 24 hours or 
so, mainly due to strong southwesterly shear.  After 24 hours, 
global models are suggesting that Ian could have some favorable 
interaction with the eastern U.S. trough, all while it's moving 
over the warm 28-29 degree Celsius waters of the Gulf Stream.  As a 
result, some slight strengthening is indicated in the official 
forecast by 36 hours, and Ian could be near hurricane intensity as 
it's approaching the coast of South Carolina.  This possibility is 
accounted for by the Hurricane Watch that is effect for the area.  
After moving inland, Ian is expected to weaken quickly, and global 
models indicate it should dissipate or become absorbed by another 
broader area of low pressure over the Carolinas by day 3.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Coastal water levels continue to subside along the west coast of 
Florida.  There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge today 
through Friday along the coasts of northeast Florida, Georgia, 
and South Carolina.  Residents in these areas should follow any 
advice given by local officials.
 
2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected to spread northward 
across northeastern Florida, Georgia, and the Carolina coasts 
through Friday.  Hurricane conditions are possible through 
Friday along the coasts of northeastern Florida, Georgia and South 
Carolina where a Hurricane Watch in effect. 
 
3. Widespread, life-threatening catastrophic flooding, with major to 
record river flooding, will continue today across portions of 
central Florida with considerable flooding in northern Florida, 
southeastern Georgia and eastern South Carolina expected today 
through the end of the week.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  29/0900Z 28.0N  80.9W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND
 12H  29/1800Z 28.9N  80.4W   55 KT  65 MPH...OVER WATER
 24H  30/0600Z 30.2N  80.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...OVER WATER
 36H  30/1800Z 32.2N  80.1W   60 KT  70 MPH...OVER WATER
 48H  01/0600Z 34.3N  80.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 60H  01/1800Z 35.8N  81.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 72H  02/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Berg
 

Tropical Storm Ian Public Advisory Number 27

Thu, 29 Sep 2022 08:59:10 GMT

Issued at 500 AM EDT Thu Sep 29 2022


000
WTNT34 KNHC 290859
TCPAT4
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Ian Advisory Number  27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092022
500 AM EDT Thu Sep 29 2022
 
...IAN NOW A TROPICAL STORM...
...BUT STILL EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STRONG WINDS, HEAVY RAINS, AND 
STORM SURGE ACROSS PORTIONS OF FLORIDA, GEORGIA, AND THE 
CAROLINAS...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.0N 80.9W
ABOUT 40 MI...70 KM SE OF ORLANDO FLORIDA
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM SW OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The Hurricane Warnings along the east and west coasts of the
Florida peninsula have been changed to Tropical Storm Warnings.
 
The Tropical Storm Watch north of Surf City to Cape Lookout, North
Carolina, has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning.
 
The government of the Bahamas has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for Bimini and Grand Bahama Islands.

The Storm Surge Watch has been discontinued from Suwannee River 
south to the Middle of Longboat Key including Tampa Bay.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Middle of Longboat Key southward to Flamingo including Charlotte 
Harbor
* Flagler/Volusia Line to the mouth of the South Santee River
* St. Johns River
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Bonita Beach to Indian Pass Florida
* Boca Raton Florida to Cape Lookout North Carolina
* Lake Okeechobee
 
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* North of South Santee River to Little River Inlet
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Flagler/Volusia County Line to the South Santee River
 
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions.  Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
 
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.
 
Interests elsewhere in eastern North Carolina should monitor the
progress of Ian.
 
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ian was
located near latitude 28.0 North, longitude 80.9 West.  Ian is 
moving toward the northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h).  A turn toward 
the north-northeast is expected later today, followed by a turn 
toward the north and north-northwest with an increase in forward 
speed Friday and Friday night.  On the forecast track, the center 
of Ian is expected to move off the east-central coast of Florida 
later today and then approach the coast of South Carolina on 
Friday.  The center will move farther inland across the Carolinas 
Friday night and Saturday.
 
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) 
with higher gusts.  Some slight re-intensification is forecast, and 
Ian could be near hurricane strength when it approaches the coast of 
South Carolina on Friday.  Weakening is expected Friday night and 
Saturday after Ian moves inland.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 415 miles (665 km)
from the center.  A WeatherFlow station at New Smyrna Beach 
recently reported a sustained wind of 61 mph (98 km/h) and a gust 
to 77 mph (124 km/h).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ian can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the
web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.
 
STORM SURGE:  The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
 
* Flagler/Volusia County Line to Altamaha Sound...4-6 ft
* Englewood to Chokoloskee including Charlotte Harbor...4-6 ft
* Altamaha Sound to South Santee River...3-5 ft
* St. Johns River north of Julington...3-5 ft
* Middle of Long Boat to Englewood...2-4 ft
* St. Johns River south of Julington...2-4 ft
* Chokoloskee to East Cape Sable...2-4 ft
* South Santee River to Little River Inlet...2-4 ft
* Patrick Air Force Base to Flagler/Volusia County Line...1-3 ft
* East of Little River Inlet to Cape Lookout...1-3 ft
* Anclote to Middle of Longboat Key, including Tampa Bay...1-3 ft
 
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by
large waves.  Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing
of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short
distances.  For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are occuring in parts of the 
warning area on the east and west coasts of Florida and should 
spread northward along the Georgia, South Carolina, and North 
Carolina coasts today through Friday.  Hurricane conditions are 
possible within the Hurricane Watch area in northeastern Florida, 
Georgia, and South Carolina through Friday.
 
RAINFALL: Ian is expected to produce the following storm total 
rainfall: 

* Northeast Florida, coastal Georgia and Lowcountry of South 
Carolina: 4 to 8 inches, with local maxima of 12 inches.
* Upstate and central South Carolina, North Carolina, and southern 
Virginia: 3 to 6 inches with local maxima of 8 inches across western 
North Carolina.

Widespread, life-threatening catastrophic flash and urban flooding, 
with major to record  flooding along rivers, will continue across 
central Florida.  Widespread considerable flash, urban, and river 
flooding is expected across portions of northeast Florida, 
southeastern Georgia, and eastern South Carolina tomorrow through 
the weekend.  Locally considerable flash, urban, and river flooding 
is possible this weekend across portions of the southern 
Appalachians, where landslides will be possible as well. Limited 
flooding is possible across portions of the southern Mid-Atlantic.
 
TORNADOES:  A tornado or two remains possible across east-central 
and northeast Florida through this morning. This threat will shift 
into the coastal Carolinas on Friday.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Ian are affecting the northern coast
of Cuba, the northeastern coast of the Yucatan peninsula and
west coast of Florida. Swells will increase along the east coast of
Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina today.  These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Berg
 

Tropical Storm Ian Wind Speed Probabilities Number 27

Thu, 29 Sep 2022 08:59:10 GMT

Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 29 2022


000
FONT14 KNHC 290859
PWSAT4
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM IAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  27              
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092022               
0900 UTC THU SEP 29 2022                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 
28.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H.                                         
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
CHARLOTTESVIL  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
RICHMOND VA    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
DANVILLE VA    34  X   X( X)   3( 3)  10(13)   1(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
NORFOLK NAS    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
NORFOLK VA     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
OCEANA NAS VA  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
ELIZABETH CTY  34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
GREENSBORO NC  34  X   X( X)   5( 5)  14(19)   3(22)   X(22)   X(22)
 
RALEIGH NC     34  X   X( X)   6( 6)  11(17)   2(19)   X(19)   X(19)
 
ROCKY MT NC    34  X   X( X)   5( 5)   8(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
CAPE HATTERAS  34  X   X( X)   7( 7)   2( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
FAYETTEVILLE   34  X   1( 1)  14(15)  19(34)   1(35)   X(35)   X(35)
 
CHARLOTTE NC   34  X   X( X)   7( 7)  21(28)   4(32)   X(32)   X(32)
CHARLOTTE NC   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
CHERRY PT NC   34  X   X( X)   9( 9)   7(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 
NEW RIVER NC   34  X   2( 2)  14(16)   2(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)
 
MOREHEAD CITY  34  X   2( 2)  17(19)   2(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)
 
SURF CITY NC   34  X   6( 6)  24(30)   5(35)   X(35)   X(35)   X(35)
 
WILMINGTON NC  34  X   2( 2)  22(24)  11(35)   X(35)   X(35)   X(35)
 
BALD HEAD ISL  34  X  16(16)  33(49)   2(51)   X(51)   X(51)   X(51)
BALD HEAD ISL  50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
FLORENCE SC    34  X   3( 3)  36(39)  20(59)   2(61)   X(61)   X(61)
FLORENCE SC    50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
FLORENCE SC    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
COLUMBIA SC    34  X   2( 2)  22(24)  23(47)   1(48)   X(48)   X(48)
COLUMBIA SC    50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
COLUMBIA SC    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
LITTLE RIVER   34  X  17(17)  40(57)   6(63)   X(63)   X(63)   X(63)
LITTLE RIVER   50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
MYRTLE BEACH   34  1  18(19)  44(63)   6(69)   X(69)   X(69)   X(69)
MYRTLE BEACH   50  X   X( X)   5( 5)   5(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
MYRTLE BEACH   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
GEORGETOWN SC  34  1  12(13)  56(69)   8(77)   X(77)   X(77)   X(77)
GEORGETOWN SC  50  X   X( X)   6( 6)   9(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)
GEORGETOWN SC  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
CHARLESTON SC  34 10  26(36)  46(82)   3(85)   X(85)   X(85)   X(85)
CHARLESTON SC  50  X   X( X)  22(22)   7(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)
CHARLESTON SC  64  X   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
BEAUFORT MCAS  34 15  25(40)  37(77)   2(79)   X(79)   X(79)   X(79)
BEAUFORT MCAS  50  X   1( 1)  20(21)   3(24)   1(25)   X(25)   X(25)
BEAUFORT MCAS  64  X   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
ATLANTA GA     34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
AUGUSTA GA     34  1   1( 2)  11(13)  12(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)
 
SAVANNAH GA    34 14  17(31)  27(58)   3(61)   X(61)   X(61)   X(61)
SAVANNAH GA    50  X   X( X)   6( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
SAVANNAH GA    64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
KINGS BAY GA   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
KINGS BAY GA   50  X   4( 4)   3( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
WAYCROSS GA    34 16   6(22)   4(26)   1(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)
 
MAYPORT NS FL  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
MAYPORT NS FL  50  X   8( 8)   2(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
JACKSONVILLE   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
GAINESVILLE FL 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
DAYTONA BEACH  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
DAYTONA BEACH  50 41   3(44)   X(44)   X(44)   X(44)   X(44)   X(44)
 
THE VILLAGES   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
ORLANDO FL     34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
ORLANDO FL     50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
COCOA BEACH FL 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
COCOA BEACH FL 50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
COCOA BEACH FL 64  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
PATRICK AFB    34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
PATRICK AFB    50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
PATRICK AFB    64  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
FT PIERCE FL   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
FT PIERCE FL   50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
W PALM BEACH   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
FT LAUDERDALE  34 14   2(16)   1(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)
 
MIAMI FL       34  7   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
HOMESTEAD ARB  34  6   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
MARATHON FL    34  5   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
KEY WEST FL    34  4   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
NAPLES FL      34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
FT MYERS FL    34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
VENICE FL      34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
TAMPA FL       34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
CEDAR KEY FL   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
TALLAHASSEE FL 34  3   X( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
ST MARKS FL    34  4   X( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
APALACHICOLA   34  4   2( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
GFMX 290N 850W 34  4   2( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
PANAMA CITY FL 34  2   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
COLUMBUS GA    34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
GRAND BAHAMA   34 12   3(15)   1(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 
NEW PROVIDENCE 34  4   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BERG                                                     

Tropical Storm Ian Forecast Advisory Number 27

Thu, 29 Sep 2022 08:58:06 GMT

Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 29 2022


000
WTNT24 KNHC 290858
TCMAT4
 
TROPICAL STORM IAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092022
0900 UTC THU SEP 29 2022
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE HURRICANE WARNINGS ALONG THE EAST AND WEST COASTS OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA HAVE BEEN CHANGED TO TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS.
 
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH NORTH OF SURF CITY TO CAPE LOOKOUT...NORTH
CAROLINA...HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR BIMINI AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLANDS.

THE STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FROM SUWANNEE RIVER 
SOUTH TO MIDDLE OF LONGBOAT KEY INCLUDING TAMPA BAY.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MIDDLE OF LONGBOAT KEY SOUTHWARD TO FLAMINGO INCLUDING CHARLOTTE 
HARBOR
* FLAGLER/VOLUSIA LINE TO THE MOUTH OF THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER
* ST. JOHNS RIVER
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF BONITA BEACH TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA
* BOCA RATON FLORIDA TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE
 
A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO LITTLE RIVER INLET
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE TO THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER
 
A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN
THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE
SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING
GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV.  THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING
SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL 
NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER 
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS.  PROMPTLY FOLLOW 
EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
 
A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF IAN.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.0N  80.9W AT 29/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  40 DEGREES AT   7 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  986 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE  50SE  40SW  70NW.
34 KT.......360NE 120SE 120SW 200NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE  60SE 360SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.0N  80.9W AT 29/0900Z
AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.7N  81.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 28.9N  80.4W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  50SE  30SW  70NW.
34 KT...450NE 120SE 100SW 180NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 30.2N  80.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  80SE  30SW  90NW.
34 KT...320NE 130SE  90SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 32.2N  80.1W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE  50SW  40NW.
34 KT...160NE 120SE  90SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 34.3N  80.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 35.8N  81.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.0N  80.9W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 29/1200Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 
 

Tropical Depression Eleven Graphics

Thu, 29 Sep 2022 08:45:27 GMT

Tropical Depression Eleven 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 29 Sep 2022 08:45:27 GMT

Tropical Depression Eleven 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 29 Sep 2022 08:45:27 GMT

Tropical Depression Eleven Forecast Discussion Number 4

Thu, 29 Sep 2022 08:44:39 GMT

Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Sep 29 2022


000
WTNT41 KNHC 290844
TCDAT1
 
Tropical Depression Eleven Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112022
500 AM AST Thu Sep 29 2022
 
Deep convection associated with the depression has become more
concentrated overnight, but it remains well to the northeast of the
low-level center due to moderate southwesterly vertical shear.
Dvorak classifications from both TAFB and SAB remain T2.0 or 30 kt.
Objective estimates from UW/CIMSS are slightly higher, but since the
current convective burst has not persisted very long, the initial
intensity is maintained at 30 kt, in line with the subjective
satellite estimates.  The cyclone is forecast to move into an area
of stronger upper-level southwesterlies, and as a consequence the
SHIPS guidance indicates that the shear will increase to more than
30 kt in about 24 hours.  Therefore, little change in strength is
expected in the short term, and weakening should occur by late
tomorrow with the depression becoming a remnant low. The system is
forecast degenerate into a trough of low pressure by 48 hours, but
the global model guidance suggests this could occur sooner.
 
The initial motion estimate is 320/11 kt. The depression should
continue to move generally northwestward for the next day or two
within the low- to mid-level flow.  The updated track forecast is
slightly west of the previous track, but it remains close to the
various consensus models.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  29/0900Z 17.8N  36.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  29/1800Z 19.3N  37.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  30/0600Z 21.3N  39.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  30/1800Z 23.6N  40.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  01/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Brown
 

Tropical Depression Eleven Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4

Thu, 29 Sep 2022 08:44:39 GMT

Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 29 2022


000
FONT11 KNHC 290844
PWSAT1
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   4      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112022               
0900 UTC THU SEP 29 2022                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR  
LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 36.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN                                                    

Summary for Tropical Depression Eleven (AT1/AL112022)

Thu, 29 Sep 2022 08:44:09 GMT

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING NORTHWESTWARD... As of 5:00 AM AST Thu Sep 29 the center of Eleven was located near 17.8, -36.1 with movement NW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Tropical Depression Eleven Public Advisory Number 4

Thu, 29 Sep 2022 08:44:09 GMT

Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Sep 29 2022


000
WTNT31 KNHC 290844
TCPAT1
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eleven Advisory Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112022
500 AM AST Thu Sep 29 2022
 
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING NORTHWESTWARD...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 36.1W
ABOUT 810 MI...1300 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven
was located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 36.1 West. The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h)
and a general northwestward motion is expected until the depression
dissipates in a couple of days.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast today.  Weakening should
begin on Friday, and the system is forecast to degenerate into a
trough of low pressure within a couple of days.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.
 
$$
Forecaster Brown
 

Tropical Depression Eleven Forecast Advisory Number 4

Thu, 29 Sep 2022 08:44:09 GMT

Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 29 2022


000
WTNT21 KNHC 290844
TCMAT1
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112022
0900 UTC THU SEP 29 2022
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N  36.1W AT 29/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT  11 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N  36.1W AT 29/0900Z
AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N  36.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 19.3N  37.8W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 21.3N  39.5W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 23.6N  40.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N  36.1W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
 

Local Statement for Miami, FL

Thu, 29 Sep 2022 06:30:32 GMT

Issued at 230 AM EDT Thu Sep 29 2022

Local Statement for Tampa Bay Area, FL

Thu, 29 Sep 2022 06:25:30 GMT

Issued at 225 AM EDT Thu Sep 29 2022

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

Thu, 29 Sep 2022 05:09:38 GMT


000
ABNT20 KNHC 290509
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Thu Sep 29 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Ian, located inland over central Florida, and on Tropical
Depression Eleven, located several hundred miles west of the Cabo
Verde Islands.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Eleven are issued under WMO
header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Eleven are issued under
WMO header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1.

$$
Forecaster Brown

Tropical Storm Ian Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map

Thu, 29 Sep 2022 04:46:33 GMT

Tropical Storm Ian Link to Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map
Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Thu, 29 Sep 2022 04:46:33 GMT

Local Statement for Melbourne, FL

Thu, 29 Sep 2022 04:00:29 GMT

Issued at 1200 AM EDT Thu Sep 29 2022

Tropical Storm Ian Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics

Thu, 29 Sep 2022 03:57:48 GMT

Tropical Storm Ian Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics Image
Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Thu, 29 Sep 2022 03:57:48 GMT

Local Statement for Jacksonville, FL

Thu, 29 Sep 2022 03:27:00 GMT

Issued at 1126 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

Local Statement for Tallahassee, FL

Thu, 29 Sep 2022 03:25:38 GMT

Issued at 1125 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022 /1025 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2022/

Local Statement for Newport/Morehead City, NC

Thu, 29 Sep 2022 03:22:49 GMT

Issued at 1122 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

Local Statement for Charleston, SC

Thu, 29 Sep 2022 03:20:20 GMT

Issued at 1120 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

Local Statement for Wilmington, NC

Thu, 29 Sep 2022 03:18:24 GMT

Issued at 1118 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

Local Statement for Columbia, SC

Thu, 29 Sep 2022 03:12:14 GMT

Issued at 1112 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

Summary for Tropical Storm Ian (AT4/AL092022)

Thu, 29 Sep 2022 01:56:34 GMT

...IAN NOW A TROPICAL STORM... ...BUT STILL EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STRONG WINDS, HEAVY RAINS, AND STORM SURGE ACROSS PORTIONS OF FLORIDA, GEORGIA, AND THE CAROLINAS... As of 5:00 AM EDT Thu Sep 29 the center of Ian was located near 28.0, -80.9 with movement NE at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 986 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

NHC Status Updates

Please Make Sure

In case of a hurricane, please make sure the information below is accurate and up to date.  We appreciate you keeping our office informed.

Emergency Preparedness

TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE PREPARATION

Hurricane season begins June 1st of each year and ends November 30th. Florida can be threatened any time during this season.  This information will help you prepare for a hurricane. Please take the time to read this information carefully.

The following are some useful definitions:

• TROPICAL DEPRESSION has winds of less than 39 miles per hour or 34 knots.
• TROPICAL STORM has winds from 39 to 73 miles per hour or 34 to 63 knots.
• TROPICAL STORM “WARNING” once issued, can develop into a hurricane. 
• HURRICANE “WATCH” - a hurricane may threaten the area within 24-36 hours.
• HURRICANE “WARNING” - a hurricane is expected to strike the area within 24 hours or less.
• HURRICANE has winds of greater than 74 miles per hour or 64 knots.
            Category 1 74-95 MPH Minimal
            Category 2 95-110 MPH Moderate
            Category 3 111-130 Major
            Category 4 131-155 Extensive
            Category 5 156 MPH + Catastrophic

WHAT CAN YOU DO TO BE READY IN THE EVENT OF A DISASTER?

Before the Storm
Preparing in advance for hurricane season can determine not only how safely and comfortably you ride out the storm, but also how easily it is to handle the days and weeks after the storm has passed.  Take a look at the information collected below to learn how you can prepare in the days and weeks before a hurricane.

Plan your stay or evacuation:
Stay Home
: However, before you choose this option, make sure you know your elevation. If we experience a storm that may put a significant storm surge in your home, you need to look at the other options. Also, people in manufactured and mobile homes cannot use this option. Mobile homes and manufactured homes are not built to withstand the high winds associated with tropical storms and hurricanes.

Stay With a Friend or Relative Who has a Safe Place: If this is your plan, make arrangements in advance. You need to make sure that where you are going is safe. It defeats the purpose of evacuating if you go to an unsafe place.

Relocate Out of the Area: You may wish to travel out of harm’s way. Be sure to bring a road map and make sure that your car is full of fuel. Stay away from major bodies of water. Make arrangements in advance if you can. If you decide to use this option, go early, traffic will be heavy if you leave at the last minute, and you may not make it to your destination.

Emergency Public Shelters: For more information on Emergency Shelters and a list of available Public Shelters please visit a county Public Library or Publix Super Market near you.

Have a 72-Hour Survival Kit
You should plan to be self-sufficient for at least 72 hours (3 days) during and after a disaster. You should anticipate no water, electrical power, or utilities for that period of time. To ensure the comfort of your family, whether at home or evacuated to another location please download and print the Hurricane Survival Kit (PDF).