Emergency Preparedness

TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE PREPARATION

Hurricane season begins June 1st of each year and ends November 30th. Florida can be threatened any time during this season.  This information will help you prepare for a hurricane. Please take the time to read this information carefully.

The following are some useful definitions:

• TROPICAL DEPRESSION has winds of less than 39 miles per hour or 34 knots.
• TROPICAL STORM has winds from 39 to 73 miles per hour or 34 to 63 knots.
• TROPICAL STORM “WARNING” once issued, can develop into a hurricane. 
• HURRICANE “WATCH” - a hurricane may threaten the area within 24-36 hours.
• HURRICANE “WARNING” - a hurricane is expected to strike the area within 24 hours or less.
• HURRICANE has winds of greater than 74 miles per hour or 64 knots.
            Category 1 74-95 MPH Minimal
            Category 2 95-110 MPH Moderate
            Category 3 111-130 Major
            Category 4 131-155 Extensive
            Category 5 156 MPH + Catastrophic

WHAT CAN YOU DO TO BE READY IN THE EVENT OF A DISASTER?

Before the Storm
Preparing in advance for hurricane season can determine not only how safely and comfortably you ride out the storm, but also how easily it is to handle the days and weeks after the storm has passed.  Take a look at the information collected below to learn how you can prepare in the days and weeks before a hurricane.

Plan your stay or evacuation:
Stay Home
: However, before you choose this option, make sure you know your elevation. If we experience a storm that may put a significant storm surge in your home, you need to look at the other options. Also, people in manufactured and mobile homes cannot use this option. Mobile homes and manufactured homes are not built to withstand the high winds associated with tropical storms and hurricanes.

Stay With a Friend or Relative Who has a Safe Place: If this is your plan, make arrangements in advance. You need to make sure that where you are going is safe. It defeats the purpose of evacuating if you go to an unsafe place.

Relocate Out of the Area: You may wish to travel out of harm’s way. Be sure to bring a road map and make sure that your car is full of fuel. Stay away from major bodies of water. Make arrangements in advance if you can. If you decide to use this option, go early, traffic will be heavy if you leave at the last minute, and you may not make it to your destination.

Emergency Public Shelters: For more information on Emergency Shelters and a list of available Public Shelters please visit a county Public Library or Publix Super Market near you.

Have a 72-Hour Survival Kit
You should plan to be self-sufficient for at least 72 hours (3 days) during and after a disaster. You should anticipate no water, electrical power, or utilities for that period of time. To ensure the comfort of your family, whether at home or evacuated to another location please download and print the Hurricane Survival Kit (PDF).

NHC Status Updates

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

Wed, 22 Sep 2021 11:59:03 GMT


000
ABNT20 KNHC 221158 CCA
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Sep 22 2021

Corrected location of Peter relative to Puerto Rico.

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Peter, located a few hundred miles north of Puerto Rico,
and on Tropical Depression Rose, located about 1000 miles
west-northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.

Showers and thunderstorms continue to become better organized in
association with a tropical wave located several hundred miles
southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are
expected to remain conducive for additional development, and a
tropical depression is expected to form within a day or two while
the system moves westward at 10 to 15 mph across the eastern and
central tropical Atlantic Ocean. Additional information on this
system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

A gale-force, non-tropical low pressure system, the remnants of
Odette, is located a little less than 500 miles west-northwest of
the westernmost Azores. This low could acquire some subtropical
characteristics over marginally warm waters during the next few days
while it makes a counter-clockwise loop over the north-central
Atlantic Ocean. However, by the weekend, this system is expected to
move into an environment of strong upper-level winds. Additional
information on this system, including gale warnings, can be found in
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Papin

Tropical Depression Peter Graphics

Wed, 22 Sep 2021 08:41:07 GMT

Tropical Depression Peter 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 22 Sep 2021 08:41:07 GMT

Tropical Depression Peter 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 22 Sep 2021 09:22:38 GMT

Tropical Depression Peter Forecast Discussion Number 15

Wed, 22 Sep 2021 08:40:30 GMT

Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Sep 22 2021


000
WTNT41 KNHC 220840
TCDAT1
 
Tropical Depression Peter Discussion Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162021
500 AM AST Wed Sep 22 2021
 
Peter is a disorganized tropical depression.  The low-level center 
is fully exposed and currently located a couple of hundred miles 
north of Puerto Rico.  Most of the associated thunderstorm activity 
remains displaced well east of the center due to about 30 kt of 
westerly shear.  The initial intensity is held at 30 kt based on a 
0206 UTC ASCAT-B pass that showed a swath of 25-30 kt winds about 60 
n mi north of the center. The ASCAT data also showed that the 
circulation has become quite elongated.  Since the hostile 
conditions of strong westerly shear and dry air entrainment are not 
expected to let up, a continued gradual decay of Peter is forecast.  
The system is still predicted to become a remnant low in 36 hours 
and dissipate in a few days, but both of these could occur sooner.
 
The depression is moving northwestward, with the latest initial 
motion estimated to be 310/10 kt.  The cyclone is expected to turn 
northward by tonight and then northeastward by the end of the week 
as the system moves in the flow on the east side of a deep-layer 
trough.  The NHC track forecast is a little to the east of the 
previous one and close to an average of the GFS and ECMWF models.
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Rainfall around the southern periphery of Peter may lead to areas 
of urban and small stream flooding through Thursday morning across 
northern Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, and portions of the Virgin 
Islands.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  22/0900Z 21.5N  66.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  22/1800Z 22.2N  66.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  23/0600Z 23.2N  66.9W   25 KT  30 MPH
 36H  23/1800Z 24.1N  66.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  24/0600Z 25.1N  65.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  24/1800Z 26.5N  64.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  25/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
 

Summary for Tropical Depression Peter (AT1/AL162021)

Wed, 22 Sep 2021 08:34:57 GMT

...POORLY ORGANIZED PETER EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD TONIGHT... As of 5:00 AM AST Wed Sep 22 the center of Peter was located near 21.5, -66.1 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Tropical Depression Peter Public Advisory Number 15

Wed, 22 Sep 2021 08:34:57 GMT

Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Sep 22 2021


000
WTNT31 KNHC 220834
TCPAT1
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Peter Advisory Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162021
500 AM AST Wed Sep 22 2021
 
...POORLY ORGANIZED PETER EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD TONIGHT...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.5N 66.1W
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM N OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Peter 
was located near latitude 21.5 North, longitude 66.1 West. The 
depression is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h).  A 
turn to the north is expected by tonight, followed by a 
north-northeastward or northeastward motion through the end of the 
week.  On the forecast track, the center of Peter will continue 
moving away from the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some gradual weakening is expected during the next couple of days,
and Peter is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low on Thursday.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Rainfall around the southern periphery of Peter could 
produce additional rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches, with storm 
total accumulations up to 9 inches, across portions of the Virgin 
Islands, Puerto Rico, and northern portions of Hispaniola through 
Thursday morning. This rainfall may lead to areas of urban and small 
stream flooding.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Peter are affecting the Virgin Islands,
Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola, and will continue spreading westward to
the Bahamas later today.  These swells could cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
 

Tropical Depression Peter Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15

Wed, 22 Sep 2021 08:34:57 GMT

Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 22 2021


000
FONT11 KNHC 220834
PWSAT1
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION PETER WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  15       
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162021               
0900 UTC WED SEP 22 2021                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION PETER WAS LOCATED NEAR   
LATITUDE 21.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI                                               

Tropical Depression Peter Forecast Advisory Number 15

Wed, 22 Sep 2021 08:34:28 GMT

Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 22 2021


000
WTNT21 KNHC 220834
TCMAT1
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION PETER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162021
0900 UTC WED SEP 22 2021
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N  66.1W AT 22/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N  66.1W AT 22/0900Z
AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.2N  65.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 22.2N  66.7W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 23.2N  66.9W
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 24.1N  66.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 25.1N  65.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 26.5N  64.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.5N  66.1W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
 
 

Tropical Depression Rose Graphics

Wed, 22 Sep 2021 08:34:21 GMT

Tropical Depression Rose 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 22 Sep 2021 08:34:21 GMT

Tropical Depression Rose 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 22 Sep 2021 09:28:36 GMT

Tropical Depression Rose Forecast Discussion Number 13

Wed, 22 Sep 2021 08:33:24 GMT

Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Sep 22 2021


000
WTNT42 KNHC 220833
TCDAT2
 
Tropical Depression Rose Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172021
500 AM AST Wed Sep 22 2021
 
Rose remains a strongly sheared and poorly organized tropical 
depression.  The low-level center is fully exposed and only a small 
area of thunderstorms is lingering on the system's east side. The 
initial intensity is held at 30 kt based on the latest Dvorak 
estimates. The cyclone is currently in an environment of about 20 kt 
of northwesterly shear, and dry mid-level air has been entraining 
into the circulation.  Since the shear is expected to increase 
during the next few days, little change in strength or gradual 
weakening seems likely.  Rose is forecast to become a remnant low by 
60 hours when the shear is expected to be near 30 kt, but confidence 
in the timing of when the system will lose organized convection is 
low. Some of the models show Rose opening into a trough toward the 
end of the forecast period, but there are some solutions that hold 
on to the system for a while longer.
 
The depression is moving northwestward at 7 kt.  The system is 
expected to turn northward in about 36 hours as it moves on the 
west side of a low- to mid-level ridge.  On Friday,  a turn to the 
northeast is expected as Rose gets caught in the flow on the 
southeast side of a deep-layer trough.  The models are in good 
agreement, and the new NHC track forecast is largely an update of 
the previous one.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  22/0900Z 23.4N  38.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  22/1800Z 24.2N  39.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  23/0600Z 25.5N  40.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  23/1800Z 27.0N  41.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  24/0600Z 28.4N  40.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 60H  24/1800Z 29.5N  38.8W   25 KT  30 MPH
 72H  25/0600Z 30.1N  36.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  26/0600Z 31.2N  31.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  27/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
 

Summary for Tropical Depression Rose (AT2/AL172021)

Wed, 22 Sep 2021 08:32:56 GMT

...DISORGANIZED ROSE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC.... As of 5:00 AM AST Wed Sep 22 the center of Rose was located near 23.4, -38.4 with movement NW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Tropical Depression Rose Public Advisory Number 13

Wed, 22 Sep 2021 08:32:56 GMT

Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Sep 22 2021


000
WTNT32 KNHC 220832
TCPAT2
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Rose Advisory Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172021
500 AM AST Wed Sep 22 2021
 
...DISORGANIZED ROSE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC....
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.4N 38.4W
ABOUT 1065 MI...1715 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Rose was 
located near latitude 23.4 North, longitude 38.4 West. The 
depression is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h) and 
this general motion should continue through tonight. A turn toward 
the north is expected on Thursday, followed by a northeastward 
motion by Friday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little overall change in intensity is expected during the next 
couple of days, however, Rose is forecast to degenerate into a 
remnant low by Friday night.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
 

Tropical Depression Rose Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13

Wed, 22 Sep 2021 08:32:56 GMT

Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 22 2021


000
FONT12 KNHC 220832
PWSAT2
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ROSE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  13        
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172021               
0900 UTC WED SEP 22 2021                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ROSE WAS LOCATED NEAR    
LATITUDE 23.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 38.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI                                               

Tropical Depression Rose Forecast Advisory Number 13

Wed, 22 Sep 2021 08:32:25 GMT

Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 22 2021


000
WTNT22 KNHC 220832
TCMAT2
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ROSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172021
0900 UTC WED SEP 22 2021
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N  38.4W AT 22/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT   7 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N  38.4W AT 22/0900Z
AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.1N  38.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 24.2N  39.4W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 25.5N  40.6W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 27.0N  41.2W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 28.4N  40.6W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 29.5N  38.8W
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 30.1N  36.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 31.2N  31.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.4N  38.4W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI