Before the Storm Preparing in advance for hurricane season can determine not only how safely and comfortably you ride out the storm, but also how easily it is to handle the days and weeks after the storm has passed. Take a look at the information collected below to learn how you can prepare in the days and weeks before a hurricane. Plan your stay or evacuation: Stay Home: However, before you choose this option, make sure you know your elevation. If we experience a storm that may put a significant storm surge in your home, you need to look at the other options. Also, people in manufactured and mobile homes cannot use this option. Mobile homes and manufactured homes are not built to withstand the high winds associated with tropical storms and hurricanes. Stay With a Friend or Relative Who has a Safe Place: If this is your plan, make arrangements in advance. You need to make sure that where you are going is safe. It defeats the purpose of evacuating if you go to an unsafe place. Relocate Out of the Area: You may wish to travel out of harm’s way. Be sure to bring a road map and make sure that your car is full of fuel. Stay away from major bodies of water. Make arrangements in advance if you can. If you decide to use this option, go early, traffic will be heavy if you leave at the last minute, and you may not make it to your destination. Emergency Public Shelters: For more information on Emergency Shelters and a list of available Public Shelters please visit a county Public Library or Publix Super Market near you. Have a 72-Hour Survival Kit You should plan to be self-sufficient for at least 72 hours (3 days) during and after a disaster. You should anticipate no water, electrical power, or utilities for that period of time. To ensure the comfort of your family, whether at home or evacuated to another location please download and print the Hurricane Survival Kit (PDF).
Issued at 800 PM AST Wed Sep 18 2019
000 WTNT35 KNHC 182342 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Jerry Intermediate Advisory Number 6A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 800 PM AST Wed Sep 18 2019 ...ADDITIONAL TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR PARTS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.2N 51.2W ABOUT 715 MI...1150 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Antigua and Barbuda has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Barbuda and Anguilla. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Barbuda * Anguilla * St. Maarten * St. Martin * St. Barthelemy * Saba and St. Eustatius A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of Jerry. Further watches could be issued this evening or overnight. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was located near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 51.2 West. Jerry is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A west- northwest motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry will be near or north of the northern Leeward Islands Friday and pass north of Puerto Rico on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Jerry is forecast to become a hurricane on Thursday, with little change in strength anticipated on Friday or Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch areas by early Friday. RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 1 to 2 inches with maximum amounts of 3 inches across the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are forecast to affect portions of northern Leeward Islands late on Thursday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 18 Sep 2019 23:58:16 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 18 Sep 2019 21:25:04 GMT
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS CONTINUING ON BERMUDA... ...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS BERMUDA INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING... As of 8:00 PM AST Wed Sep 18 the center of Humberto was located near 33.4, -65.0 with movement ENE at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 952 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 120 mph.
000 WTNT34 KNHC 182357 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Humberto Intermediate Advisory Number 25A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019 800 PM AST Wed Sep 18 2019 ...HURRICANE CONDITIONS CONTINUING ON BERMUDA... ...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS BERMUDA INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.4N 65.0W ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM N OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of the large eye of Hurricane Humberto was located by satellite and Bermuda weather radar data near latitude 33.4 North, longitude 65.0 West. Humberto is moving toward the east-northeast near 20 mph (31 km/h). This general motion with an additional increase in forward speed is expected through early Thursday, followed by a northeastward to north-northeastward motion through Friday. On the forecast track, the core of Humberto will continue to pass north of Bermuda this evening. Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Humberto is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next day or so, but Humberto should remain a powerful hurricane through early Thursday while it passes close to Bermuda. A steady weakening trend should begin later on Thursday. Humberto is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km). An automated station at Pearl Island recently reported sustained winds of 100 mph (161 km/h) and a wind gust of 123 mph (198 km/h). Wade International Airport recently reported a wind gust of 115 mph (185 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 952 mb (28.12 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Humberto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are occurring on Bermuda and should continue for a few more hours. Tropical-storm-force winds will persist on Bermuda into late Thursday morning. RAINFALL: Humberto may bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda through Thursday, with rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches with maximum amounts of 6 inches expected. Rainfall amounts up to 3 inches have already been reported across portions of the island. SURF: Large swells generated by Humberto will increase along the coast of Bermuda today and tonight. Dangerous breaking waves, especially along south-facing beaches, will be possible Wednesday night into Thursday, and could cause coastal flooding. Wave heights exceeding 30 feet have already been reported by an offshore NOAA buoy. Swells will continue to affect the northwestern Bahamas and the southeastern coast of the United States from east-central Florida to North Carolina during the next couple of days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office and the Bermuda Weather Service. STORM SURGE: Storm surge and breaking waves could raise water levels by 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate southern coast of Bermuda. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
968 ABNT20 KNHC 182352 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Humberto, located just to the north of Bermuda, and on Tropical Storm Jerry, located several hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands. A tropical wave located about 850 miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized cloudiness and showers. Some development of this system is possible while the system approaches the Windward Islands this weekend or when it moves across the southeastern Caribbean Sea early next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms near and to the south-southeast of the Dominican Republic is associated with a tropical wave. While upper-level winds are not forecast to be conducive for significant development, locally heavy rainfall is possible over portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti during the next couple of days. The disturbance is forecast to move slowly northwestward through the weekend. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. $$ Forecaster Pasch
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 18 Sep 2019 23:44:42 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 18 Sep 2019 21:32:12 GMT
...ADDITIONAL TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR PARTS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... As of 8:00 PM AST Wed Sep 18 the center of Jerry was located near 15.2, -51.2 with movement WNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
The NHC has issued its final advisory on this system. Public Advisories from the Weather Prediction Center will provide updates as long as the system remains a flood threat. Issued at 400 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019
Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Sep 18 2019
000 WTNT44 KNHC 182052 TCDAT4 Hurricane Humberto Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019 500 PM AST Wed Sep 18 2019 Normal communications with the Bermuda Weather Service have been disrupted due to a lightning strike. Humberto is taking on more of a hybrid-extratropical structure based on most of the rain shield having been displaced to the left or poleward side of the circulation now as seen in Bermuda weather radar data, and also in conventional and passive microwave satellite imagery. Sustained hurricane-force winds and gusts have been measured by amateur radio operators across the island, with a peak gust to 104 mph having been reported thus far at Ports Island, Bermuda. The initial intensity of 105 kt on the previous advisory has been maintained since little overall change in the structure has occurred since the last aircraft reconnaissance mission 6 hours ago. The initial motion estimate is 060/17 kt. There are no significant changes to the previous forecast track or reasoning. Humberto has basically remained on track during the past 24 hours. The hurricane is expected to continue accelerating toward the east-northeast tonight and Thursday morning, with the center expected to pass about 80 nmi northwest of Bermuda early this evening. A turn toward the northeast and north-northeast is forecast to occur by early Thursday afternoon, followed by a motion toward the east-northeast by 48 hours, with the latter motion continuing through 96 hours. The new official track forecast is similar to the previous advisory track, and lies close to the tightly packed TVCN, NOAA-HCCA, and FSSE consensus track models. Humberto is now fully embedded within an anticyclonically curved right-rear jet entrance region. As a result, some fluctuations in strength could occur during the next 12 hours or so. Thereafter, strong southwesterly vertical wind shear in excess of 50 kt, along with cold upwelling beneath the hurricane, should combine to induce steady weakening. By 48 hours, the global models continue to forecast Humberto to merge with a frontal system, and the NHC intensity forecast calls for extratropical transition around that time. The official intensity forecast follows an average of the global models' intensity forecasts due to Humberto's hybrid nature, which is not being captured properly by the tropical-cyclone-based consensus intensity models. Key Messages: 1. A prolonged period of dangerous winds is expected to continue on Bermuda through Thursday morning, with hurricane-force winds expected during the next several hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. 2. Storm surge and dangerous breaking waves could cause coastal flooding tonight and Thursday along the southern coast of Bermuda. 3. Swells will continue to affect the northwestern Bahamas and the southeastern coast of the United States from east-central Florida to North Carolina during the next couple of days, creating life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 33.0N 66.3W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 19/0600Z 34.6N 63.6W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 19/1800Z 37.4N 61.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 20/0600Z 39.8N 60.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 20/1800Z 41.6N 58.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 21/1800Z 43.9N 47.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 22/1800Z 49.0N 30.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED/ABSORBED $$ Forecaster Stewart
Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 18 2019
000 FONT14 KNHC 182046 PWSAT4 HURRICANE HUMBERTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092019 2100 UTC WED SEP 18 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HUMBERTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 105 KTS...120 MPH...195 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) 11(11) 16(27) 2(29) X(29) X(29) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BERMUDA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BERMUDA 50 85 X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) BERMUDA 64 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
000 WTNT24 KNHC 182044 TCMAT4 HURRICANE HUMBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092019 2100 UTC WED SEP 18 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.0N 66.3W AT 18/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 952 MB EYE DIAMETER 50 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT. 64 KT....... 60NE 70SE 70SW 60NW. 50 KT.......100NE 100SE 90SW 90NW. 34 KT.......150NE 170SE 150SW 140NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 360SE 510SW 420NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.0N 66.3W AT 18/2100Z AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.5N 67.2W FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 34.6N 63.6W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 90SE 70SW 60NW. 50 KT...100NE 110SE 90SW 90NW. 34 KT...150NE 170SE 150SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 37.4N 61.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 90SE 70SW 60NW. 50 KT...100NE 110SE 90SW 90NW. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 150SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 39.8N 60.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 90SE 70SW 60NW. 50 KT...100NE 110SE 90SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 180SE 150SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 41.6N 58.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT...100NE 110SE 90SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 180SE 150SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 43.9N 47.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...200NE 180SE 150SW 140NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 49.0N 30.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED/ABSORBED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.0N 66.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 19/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
000 WTNT45 KNHC 182041 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 500 PM AST Wed Sep 18 2019 Jerry continues to strengthen this afternoon, as indicated by 1-min GOES-16 satellite imagery, with a large burst of convection close to the center. In addition, microwave data show that the central structure has improved, displaying a tightly wrapped band near the center. The initial wind speed is set to 50 kt, on the conservative side of the intensity estimates. The storm should become a hurricane on Thursday while it is moving over very warm waters with light shear. Dropsondes from the NOAA G-IV aircraft this afternoon show that Jerry is surrounded by some very dry air in the lower to mid-levels, and this is likely the main limiting factor on the cyclone's strengthening rate in the near term. By 48 hours, almost all of the models show an increase in northwesterly shear due to flow from an upper-level ridge, which seems likely to cause some weakening. At long range, Jerry is likely to interact with a mid-latitude trough, which is notoriously difficult to forecast. Only small changes were made to the previous wind speed prediction, and this advisory is close to a blend of the various consensus aids. The initial motion continues to be west-northwestward, or 290/13 kt. There's no substantial change to the track forecast on this package, with a subtropical ridge providing a well-defined steering current. This ridge should move Jerry along at a faster forward speed in about the same direction for the next couple of days, taking the center close to but north of the northern Leeward Islands. Afterward, a northwest to northward turn, influenced by a weakness in the aforementioned ridge left behind by Humberto and a new mid-latitude shortwave, is anticipated. The new forecast is very close to the previous one and a blend of the latest ECMWF ensemble mean and the corrected-consensus HCCA. Key Messages: 1. Jerry is expected to become a hurricane before it moves close to the northern Leeward Islands Friday. Although the core of Jerry is currently expected to pass north of the islands, tropical-storm- force winds and locally heavy rainfall are possible, and tropical storm watches have been issued for a portion of this area. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 15.0N 50.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 19/0600Z 15.7N 52.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 19/1800Z 16.7N 55.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 20/0600Z 17.8N 58.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 20/1800Z 19.1N 61.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 21/1800Z 21.5N 66.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 22/1800Z 25.2N 70.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 23/1800Z 28.5N 69.5W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
000 FONT15 KNHC 182040 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM JERRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019 2100 UTC WED SEP 18 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JERRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 1(14) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) PONCE PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 1(12) X(12) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) 1(17) X(17) SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAINT THOMAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) X(10) X(10) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 15(27) X(27) X(27) SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAINT MAARTEN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SABA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 8(14) 1(15) X(15) SABA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ST EUSTATIUS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 7(14) X(14) X(14) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 6(13) X(13) X(13) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 17(21) 4(25) X(25) X(25) BARBUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BARBUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 4(14) X(14) X(14) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
000 WTNT25 KNHC 182040 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102019 2100 UTC WED SEP 18 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. MAARTEN HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR ST. MAARTEN. METEO-FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ST. MAARTEN * ST. MARTIN * ST. BARTHELEMY A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JERRY. FURTHER WATCHES COULD BE ISSUED THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 50.5W AT 18/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 50.5W AT 18/2100Z AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 49.9W FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 15.7N 52.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 16.7N 55.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 17.8N 58.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 19.1N 61.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 21.5N 66.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 25.2N 70.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 28.5N 69.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 50.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 19/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE