Emergency Preparedness

TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE PREPARATION

Hurricane season begins June 1st of each year and ends November 30th. Florida can be threatened any time during this season.  This information will help you prepare for a hurricane. Please take the time to read this information carefully.

The following are some useful definitions:

• TROPICAL DEPRESSION has winds of less than 39 miles per hour or 34 knots.
• TROPICAL STORM has winds from 39 to 73 miles per hour or 34 to 63 knots.
• TROPICAL STORM “WARNING” once issued, can develop into a hurricane. 
• HURRICANE “WATCH” - a hurricane may threaten the area within 24-36 hours.
• HURRICANE “WARNING” - a hurricane is expected to strike the area within 24 hours or less.
• HURRICANE has winds of greater than 74 miles per hour or 64 knots.
            Category 1 74-95 MPH Minimal
            Category 2 95-110 MPH Moderate
            Category 3 111-130 Major
            Category 4 131-155 Extensive
            Category 5 156 MPH + Catastrophic

WHAT CAN YOU DO TO BE READY IN THE EVENT OF A DISASTER?

Before the Storm
Preparing in advance for hurricane season can determine not only how safely and comfortably you ride out the storm, but also how easily it is to handle the days and weeks after the storm has passed.  Take a look at the information collected below to learn how you can prepare in the days and weeks before a hurricane.

Plan your stay or evacuation:
Stay Home
: However, before you choose this option, make sure you know your elevation. If we experience a storm that may put a significant storm surge in your home, you need to look at the other options. Also, people in manufactured and mobile homes cannot use this option. Mobile homes and manufactured homes are not built to withstand the high winds associated with tropical storms and hurricanes.

Stay With a Friend or Relative Who has a Safe Place: If this is your plan, make arrangements in advance. You need to make sure that where you are going is safe. It defeats the purpose of evacuating if you go to an unsafe place.

Relocate Out of the Area: You may wish to travel out of harm’s way. Be sure to bring a road map and make sure that your car is full of fuel. Stay away from major bodies of water. Make arrangements in advance if you can. If you decide to use this option, go early, traffic will be heavy if you leave at the last minute, and you may not make it to your destination.

Emergency Public Shelters: For more information on Emergency Shelters and a list of available Public Shelters please visit a county Public Library or Publix Super Market near you.

Have a 72-Hour Survival Kit
You should plan to be self-sufficient for at least 72 hours (3 days) during and after a disaster. You should anticipate no water, electrical power, or utilities for that period of time. To ensure the comfort of your family, whether at home or evacuated to another location please download and print the Hurricane Survival Kit (PDF).

NHC Status Updates

Tropical Weather Outlook

Tropical Storm Jerry Public Advisory Number 6A

Thu, 19 Sep 2019 00:13:14 GMT

Issued at 800 PM AST Wed Sep 18 2019


000
WTNT35 KNHC 182342
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102019
800 PM AST Wed Sep 18 2019

...ADDITIONAL TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR PARTS OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 51.2W
ABOUT 715 MI...1150 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Antigua and Barbuda has issued a Tropical Storm
Watch for Barbuda and Anguilla.


SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barbuda
* Anguilla
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin
* St. Barthelemy
* Saba and St. Eustatius

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor
the progress of Jerry.  Further watches could be issued this evening
or overnight.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was
located near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 51.2 West.  Jerry is
moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h).  A west-
northwest motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected over
the next few days.  On the forecast track, the center of Jerry will
be near or north of the northern Leeward Islands Friday and pass
north of Puerto Rico on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Jerry is forecast to become a hurricane on Thursday, with little
change in strength anticipated on Friday or Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
areas by early Friday.

RAINFALL: Jerry is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 1 to 2 inches with maximum amounts of 3 inches across the
northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.

SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are forecast to affect portions
of northern Leeward Islands late on Thursday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Hurricane Humberto Graphics

Wed, 18 Sep 2019 23:58:16 GMT

Hurricane Humberto 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 18 Sep 2019 23:58:16 GMT

Hurricane Humberto 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 18 Sep 2019 21:25:04 GMT

Summary for Hurricane Humberto (AT4/AL092019)

Wed, 18 Sep 2019 23:57:26 GMT

...HURRICANE CONDITIONS CONTINUING ON BERMUDA... ...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS BERMUDA INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING... As of 8:00 PM AST Wed Sep 18 the center of Humberto was located near 33.4, -65.0 with movement ENE at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 952 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 120 mph.

Hurricane Humberto Public Advisory Number 25A

Wed, 18 Sep 2019 23:57:26 GMT

Issued at 800 PM AST Wed Sep 18 2019


000
WTNT34 KNHC 182357
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Humberto Intermediate Advisory Number 25A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092019
800 PM AST Wed Sep 18 2019

...HURRICANE CONDITIONS CONTINUING ON BERMUDA...
...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS BERMUDA INTO
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.4N 65.0W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM N OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of the large eye of Hurricane
Humberto was located by satellite and Bermuda weather radar data
near latitude 33.4 North, longitude 65.0 West. Humberto is moving
toward the east-northeast near 20 mph (31 km/h). This general motion
with an additional increase in forward speed is expected through
early Thursday, followed by a northeastward to north-northeastward
motion through Friday.  On the forecast track, the core of Humberto
will continue to pass north of Bermuda this evening.

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Humberto is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Some fluctuations in intensity are likely
during the next day or so, but Humberto should remain a powerful
hurricane through early Thursday while it passes close to Bermuda. A
steady weakening trend should begin later on Thursday.

Humberto is a large hurricane.  Hurricane-force winds extend outward
up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force
winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km).  An automated station
at Pearl Island recently reported sustained winds of 100 mph
(161 km/h) and a wind gust of 123 mph (198 km/h). Wade
International Airport recently reported a wind gust of 115 mph
(185 km/h).


The estimated minimum central pressure is 952 mb (28.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Humberto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are occurring on Bermuda and should
continue for a few more hours.  Tropical-storm-force winds will
persist on Bermuda into late Thursday morning.

RAINFALL:  Humberto may bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda
through Thursday, with rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches with
maximum amounts of 6 inches expected.  Rainfall amounts up to 3
inches have already been reported across portions of the island.

SURF:  Large swells generated by Humberto will increase along the
coast of Bermuda today and tonight.  Dangerous breaking waves,
especially along south-facing beaches, will be possible Wednesday
night into Thursday, and could cause coastal flooding.  Wave heights
exceeding 30 feet have already been reported by an offshore NOAA
buoy.

Swells will continue to affect the northwestern Bahamas and the
southeastern coast of the United States from east-central Florida to
North Carolina during the next couple of days.

These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office
and the Bermuda Weather Service.

STORM SURGE:  Storm surge and breaking waves could raise water
levels by 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate
southern coast of Bermuda.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

Wed, 18 Sep 2019 23:52:55 GMT


968
ABNT20 KNHC 182352
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Humberto, located just to the north of Bermuda, and on Tropical
Storm Jerry, located several hundred miles east of the Leeward
Islands.

A tropical wave located about 850 miles west of the Cabo Verde
Islands is producing disorganized cloudiness and showers. Some
development of this system is possible while the system approaches
the Windward Islands this weekend or when it moves across the
southeastern Caribbean Sea early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms near and to
the south-southeast of the Dominican Republic is associated with a
tropical wave. While upper-level winds are not forecast to be
conducive for significant development, locally heavy rainfall is
possible over portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti during
the next couple of days. The disturbance is forecast to move slowly
northwestward through the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Tropical Storm Jerry Graphics

Wed, 18 Sep 2019 23:44:42 GMT

Tropical Storm Jerry 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 18 Sep 2019 23:44:42 GMT

Tropical Storm Jerry 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 18 Sep 2019 21:32:12 GMT

Summary for Tropical Storm Jerry (AT5/AL102019)

Wed, 18 Sep 2019 21:08:26 GMT

...ADDITIONAL TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR PARTS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... As of 8:00 PM AST Wed Sep 18 the center of Jerry was located near 15.2, -51.2 with movement WNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Tropical Depression Imelda Public Advisory Number 6

Wed, 18 Sep 2019 20:53:17 GMT

The NHC has issued its final advisory on this system. Public Advisories from the Weather Prediction Center will provide updates as long as the system remains a flood threat. Issued at 400 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019

Hurricane Humberto Forecast Discussion Number 25

Wed, 18 Sep 2019 20:52:30 GMT

Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Sep 18 2019


000
WTNT44 KNHC 182052
TCDAT4

Hurricane Humberto Discussion Number  25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092019
500 PM AST Wed Sep 18 2019

Normal communications with the Bermuda Weather Service have been
disrupted due to a lightning strike.

Humberto is taking on more of a hybrid-extratropical structure based
on most of the rain shield having been displaced to the left or
poleward side of the circulation now as seen in Bermuda weather
radar data, and also in conventional and passive microwave satellite
imagery. Sustained hurricane-force winds and gusts have been
measured by amateur radio operators across the island, with a peak
gust to 104 mph having been reported thus far at Ports Island,
Bermuda. The initial intensity of 105 kt on the previous advisory
has been maintained since little overall change in the structure has
occurred since the last aircraft reconnaissance mission 6 hours ago.

The initial motion estimate is 060/17 kt. There are no significant
changes to the previous forecast track or reasoning. Humberto has
basically remained on track during the past 24 hours. The hurricane
is expected to continue accelerating toward the east-northeast
tonight and Thursday morning, with the center expected to pass
about 80 nmi northwest of Bermuda early this evening. A turn toward
the northeast and north-northeast is forecast to occur by early
Thursday afternoon, followed by a motion toward the east-northeast
by 48 hours, with the latter motion continuing through 96 hours. The
new official track forecast is similar to the previous advisory
track, and lies close to the tightly packed TVCN, NOAA-HCCA, and
FSSE consensus track models.

Humberto is now fully embedded within an anticyclonically curved
right-rear jet entrance region. As a result, some fluctuations in
strength could occur during the next 12 hours or so. Thereafter,
strong southwesterly vertical wind shear in excess of 50 kt, along
with cold upwelling beneath the hurricane, should combine to induce
steady weakening. By 48 hours, the global models continue to
forecast Humberto to merge with a frontal system, and the NHC
intensity forecast calls for extratropical transition around that
time. The official intensity forecast follows an average of the
global models' intensity forecasts due to Humberto's hybrid nature,
which is not being captured properly by the tropical-cyclone-based
consensus intensity models.

Key Messages:

1. A prolonged period of dangerous winds is expected to continue on
Bermuda through Thursday morning, with hurricane-force winds
expected during the next several hours. Preparations to protect
life and property should be rushed to completion.

2. Storm surge and dangerous breaking waves could cause coastal
flooding tonight and Thursday along the southern coast of Bermuda.

3. Swells will continue to affect the northwestern Bahamas and the
southeastern coast of the United States from east-central Florida to
North Carolina during the next couple of days, creating life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/2100Z 33.0N  66.3W  105 KT 120 MPH
 12H  19/0600Z 34.6N  63.6W  105 KT 120 MPH
 24H  19/1800Z 37.4N  61.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  20/0600Z 39.8N  60.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  20/1800Z 41.6N  58.7W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  21/1800Z 43.9N  47.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  22/1800Z 49.0N  30.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  23/1800Z...DISSIPATED/ABSORBED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Hurricane Humberto Wind Speed Probabilities Number 25

Wed, 18 Sep 2019 20:46:59 GMT

Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 18 2019


000
FONT14 KNHC 182046
PWSAT4
                                                                    
HURRICANE HUMBERTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  25              
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092019               
2100 UTC WED SEP 18 2019                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HUMBERTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 
33.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
105 KTS...120 MPH...195 KM/H.                                       
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
HIBERNIA OILFD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
CAPE RACE NFLD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
ILE ST PIERRE  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
SYDNEY NS      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
SABLE ISLAND   34  X   X( X)  11(11)  16(27)   2(29)   X(29)   X(29)
SABLE ISLAND   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
BERMUDA        34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
BERMUDA        50 85   X(85)   X(85)   X(85)   X(85)   X(85)   X(85)
BERMUDA        64  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER STEWART                                                  

Hurricane Humberto Forecast Advisory Number 25

Wed, 18 Sep 2019 20:44:58 GMT

Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 18 2019


000
WTNT24 KNHC 182044
TCMAT4

HURRICANE HUMBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092019
2100 UTC WED SEP 18 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.0N  66.3W AT 18/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR  60 DEGREES AT  17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  952 MB
EYE DIAMETER  50 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE  70SE  70SW  60NW.
50 KT.......100NE 100SE  90SW  90NW.
34 KT.......150NE 170SE 150SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 360SE 510SW 420NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.0N  66.3W AT 18/2100Z
AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.5N  67.2W

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 34.6N  63.6W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  90SE  70SW  60NW.
50 KT...100NE 110SE  90SW  90NW.
34 KT...150NE 170SE 150SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 37.4N  61.0W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  90SE  70SW  60NW.
50 KT...100NE 110SE  90SW  90NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 150SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 39.8N  60.0W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  90SE  70SW  60NW.
50 KT...100NE 110SE  90SW  90NW.
34 KT...200NE 180SE 150SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 41.6N  58.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT...100NE 110SE  90SW  90NW.
34 KT...200NE 180SE 150SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 43.9N  47.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...200NE 180SE 150SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 49.0N  30.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED/ABSORBED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.0N  66.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 19/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART


Tropical Storm Jerry Forecast Discussion Number 6

Wed, 18 Sep 2019 20:41:26 GMT

Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Sep 18 2019


000
WTNT45 KNHC 182041
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102019
500 PM AST Wed Sep 18 2019

Jerry continues to strengthen this afternoon, as indicated by 1-min
GOES-16 satellite imagery, with a large burst of convection close
to the center.  In addition, microwave data show that the central
structure has improved, displaying a tightly wrapped band near the
center.  The initial wind speed is set to 50 kt, on the conservative
side of the intensity estimates.

The storm should become a hurricane on Thursday while it is moving
over very warm waters with light shear.  Dropsondes from the NOAA
G-IV aircraft this afternoon show that Jerry is surrounded by some
very dry air in the lower to mid-levels, and this is likely the main
limiting factor on the cyclone's strengthening rate in the near
term.  By 48 hours, almost all of the models show an increase in
northwesterly shear due to flow from an upper-level ridge, which
seems likely to cause some weakening.  At long range, Jerry is
likely to interact with a mid-latitude trough, which is notoriously
difficult to forecast.  Only small changes were made to the previous
wind speed prediction, and this advisory is close to a blend of the
various consensus aids.

The initial motion continues to be west-northwestward, or 290/13 kt.
There's no substantial change to the track forecast on this
package, with a subtropical ridge providing a well-defined steering
current.  This ridge should move Jerry along at a faster forward
speed in about the same direction for the next couple of days,
taking the center close to but north of the northern Leeward
Islands.  Afterward, a northwest to northward turn, influenced by a
weakness in the aforementioned ridge left behind by Humberto and a
new mid-latitude shortwave, is anticipated. The new forecast is very
close to the previous one and a blend of the latest ECMWF ensemble
mean and the corrected-consensus HCCA.

Key Messages:

1. Jerry is expected to become a hurricane before it moves close to
the northern Leeward Islands Friday. Although the core of Jerry is
currently expected to pass north of the islands, tropical-storm-
force winds and locally heavy rainfall are possible, and tropical
storm watches have been issued for a portion of this area.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/2100Z 15.0N  50.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  19/0600Z 15.7N  52.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  19/1800Z 16.7N  55.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  20/0600Z 17.8N  58.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  20/1800Z 19.1N  61.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  21/1800Z 21.5N  66.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  22/1800Z 25.2N  70.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  23/1800Z 28.5N  69.5W   60 KT  70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

Tropical Storm Jerry Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6

Wed, 18 Sep 2019 20:41:01 GMT

Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 18 2019


000
FONT15 KNHC 182040
PWSAT5
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM JERRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   6            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102019               
2100 UTC WED SEP 18 2019                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JERRY WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
SAN SALVADOR   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)
 
MAYAGUANA      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   1( 8)
 
GRAND TURK     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  11(13)   1(14)
 
PUERTO PLATA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)
 
PONCE PR       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
AGUADILLA PR   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
SAN JUAN PR    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 
VIEQUES PR     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   9(11)   1(12)   X(12)
 
SAINT THOMAS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  13(16)   1(17)   X(17)
SAINT THOMAS   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
SAINT THOMAS   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
SAINT CROIX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   8(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
SAINT MAARTEN  34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  10(12)  15(27)   X(27)   X(27)
SAINT MAARTEN  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
SAINT MAARTEN  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
SABA           34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   8(14)   1(15)   X(15)
SABA           50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ST EUSTATIUS   34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   7(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   6(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
BARBUDA        34  X   X( X)   4( 4)  17(21)   4(25)   X(25)   X(25)
BARBUDA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
BARBUDA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
ANTIGUA        34  X   X( X)   4( 4)   6(10)   4(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
GUADELOUPE     34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
AVES           34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
DOMINICA       34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
MARTINIQUE     34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BLAKE                                                    

Tropical Storm Jerry Forecast Advisory Number 6

Wed, 18 Sep 2019 20:40:24 GMT

Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 18 2019


000
WTNT25 KNHC 182040
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102019
2100 UTC WED SEP 18 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. MAARTEN HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
ST. MAARTEN.

METEO-FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR ST. MARTIN AND
ST. BARTHELEMY.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. MAARTEN
* ST. MARTIN
* ST. BARTHELEMY

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF JERRY.  FURTHER WATCHES COULD BE ISSUED THIS EVENING
OR OVERNIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N  50.5W AT 18/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N  50.5W AT 18/2100Z
AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N  49.9W

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 15.7N  52.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 16.7N  55.3W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  10SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 17.8N  58.3W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  10SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  30SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 19.1N  61.4W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  10SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  80SE  40SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 21.5N  66.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  40SW  60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 25.2N  70.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 28.5N  69.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N  50.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 19/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE