Before the Storm Preparing in advance for hurricane season can determine not only how safely and comfortably you ride out the storm, but also how easily it is to handle the days and weeks after the storm has passed. Take a look at the information collected below to learn how you can prepare in the days and weeks before a hurricane. Plan your stay or evacuation: Stay Home: However, before you choose this option, make sure you know your elevation. If we experience a storm that may put a significant storm surge in your home, you need to look at the other options. Also, people in manufactured and mobile homes cannot use this option. Mobile homes and manufactured homes are not built to withstand the high winds associated with tropical storms and hurricanes. Stay With a Friend or Relative Who has a Safe Place: If this is your plan, make arrangements in advance. You need to make sure that where you are going is safe. It defeats the purpose of evacuating if you go to an unsafe place. Relocate Out of the Area: You may wish to travel out of harm’s way. Be sure to bring a road map and make sure that your car is full of fuel. Stay away from major bodies of water. Make arrangements in advance if you can. If you decide to use this option, go early, traffic will be heavy if you leave at the last minute, and you may not make it to your destination. Emergency Public Shelters: For more information on Emergency Shelters and a list of available Public Shelters please visit a county Public Library or Publix Super Market near you. Have a 72-Hour Survival Kit You should plan to be self-sufficient for at least 72 hours (3 days) during and after a disaster. You should anticipate no water, electrical power, or utilities for that period of time. To ensure the comfort of your family, whether at home or evacuated to another location please download and print the Hurricane Survival Kit (PDF).
000 ABNT20 KNHC 221158 CCA TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Wed Sep 22 2021 Corrected location of Peter relative to Puerto Rico. For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Peter, located a few hundred miles north of Puerto Rico, and on Tropical Depression Rose, located about 1000 miles west-northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Showers and thunderstorms continue to become better organized in association with a tropical wave located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are expected to remain conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is expected to form within a day or two while the system moves westward at 10 to 15 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic Ocean. Additional information on this system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. A gale-force, non-tropical low pressure system, the remnants of Odette, is located a little less than 500 miles west-northwest of the westernmost Azores. This low could acquire some subtropical characteristics over marginally warm waters during the next few days while it makes a counter-clockwise loop over the north-central Atlantic Ocean. However, by the weekend, this system is expected to move into an environment of strong upper-level winds. Additional information on this system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. && High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php $$ Forecaster Papin
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 22 Sep 2021 08:41:07 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 22 Sep 2021 09:22:38 GMT
Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Sep 22 2021
000 WTNT41 KNHC 220840 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Peter Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162021 500 AM AST Wed Sep 22 2021 Peter is a disorganized tropical depression. The low-level center is fully exposed and currently located a couple of hundred miles north of Puerto Rico. Most of the associated thunderstorm activity remains displaced well east of the center due to about 30 kt of westerly shear. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt based on a 0206 UTC ASCAT-B pass that showed a swath of 25-30 kt winds about 60 n mi north of the center. The ASCAT data also showed that the circulation has become quite elongated. Since the hostile conditions of strong westerly shear and dry air entrainment are not expected to let up, a continued gradual decay of Peter is forecast. The system is still predicted to become a remnant low in 36 hours and dissipate in a few days, but both of these could occur sooner. The depression is moving northwestward, with the latest initial motion estimated to be 310/10 kt. The cyclone is expected to turn northward by tonight and then northeastward by the end of the week as the system moves in the flow on the east side of a deep-layer trough. The NHC track forecast is a little to the east of the previous one and close to an average of the GFS and ECMWF models. Key Messages: 1. Rainfall around the southern periphery of Peter may lead to areas of urban and small stream flooding through Thursday morning across northern Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, and portions of the Virgin Islands. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 21.5N 66.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 22/1800Z 22.2N 66.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 23/0600Z 23.2N 66.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 23/1800Z 24.1N 66.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 24/0600Z 25.1N 65.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 24/1800Z 26.5N 64.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
...POORLY ORGANIZED PETER EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD TONIGHT... As of 5:00 AM AST Wed Sep 22 the center of Peter was located near 21.5, -66.1 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
000 WTNT31 KNHC 220834 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Peter Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162021 500 AM AST Wed Sep 22 2021 ...POORLY ORGANIZED PETER EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.5N 66.1W ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM N OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Peter was located near latitude 21.5 North, longitude 66.1 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn to the north is expected by tonight, followed by a north-northeastward or northeastward motion through the end of the week. On the forecast track, the center of Peter will continue moving away from the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some gradual weakening is expected during the next couple of days, and Peter is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low on Thursday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Rainfall around the southern periphery of Peter could produce additional rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches, with storm total accumulations up to 9 inches, across portions of the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and northern portions of Hispaniola through Thursday morning. This rainfall may lead to areas of urban and small stream flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Peter are affecting the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola, and will continue spreading westward to the Bahamas later today. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 22 2021
000 FONT11 KNHC 220834 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION PETER WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162021 0900 UTC WED SEP 22 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION PETER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
000 WTNT21 KNHC 220834 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION PETER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162021 0900 UTC WED SEP 22 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 66.1W AT 22/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 66.1W AT 22/0900Z AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 65.9W FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 22.2N 66.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 23.2N 66.9W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 24.1N 66.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 25.1N 65.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 26.5N 64.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.5N 66.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 22 Sep 2021 08:34:21 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 22 Sep 2021 09:28:36 GMT
000 WTNT42 KNHC 220833 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Rose Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172021 500 AM AST Wed Sep 22 2021 Rose remains a strongly sheared and poorly organized tropical depression. The low-level center is fully exposed and only a small area of thunderstorms is lingering on the system's east side. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt based on the latest Dvorak estimates. The cyclone is currently in an environment of about 20 kt of northwesterly shear, and dry mid-level air has been entraining into the circulation. Since the shear is expected to increase during the next few days, little change in strength or gradual weakening seems likely. Rose is forecast to become a remnant low by 60 hours when the shear is expected to be near 30 kt, but confidence in the timing of when the system will lose organized convection is low. Some of the models show Rose opening into a trough toward the end of the forecast period, but there are some solutions that hold on to the system for a while longer. The depression is moving northwestward at 7 kt. The system is expected to turn northward in about 36 hours as it moves on the west side of a low- to mid-level ridge. On Friday, a turn to the northeast is expected as Rose gets caught in the flow on the southeast side of a deep-layer trough. The models are in good agreement, and the new NHC track forecast is largely an update of the previous one. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 23.4N 38.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 22/1800Z 24.2N 39.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 23/0600Z 25.5N 40.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 23/1800Z 27.0N 41.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 24/0600Z 28.4N 40.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 24/1800Z 29.5N 38.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 72H 25/0600Z 30.1N 36.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 26/0600Z 31.2N 31.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 27/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
...DISORGANIZED ROSE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC.... As of 5:00 AM AST Wed Sep 22 the center of Rose was located near 23.4, -38.4 with movement NW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
000 WTNT32 KNHC 220832 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Rose Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172021 500 AM AST Wed Sep 22 2021 ...DISORGANIZED ROSE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC.... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.4N 38.4W ABOUT 1065 MI...1715 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Rose was located near latitude 23.4 North, longitude 38.4 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h) and this general motion should continue through tonight. A turn toward the north is expected on Thursday, followed by a northeastward motion by Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little overall change in intensity is expected during the next couple of days, however, Rose is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low by Friday night. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
000 FONT12 KNHC 220832 PWSAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ROSE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172021 0900 UTC WED SEP 22 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ROSE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 38.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
000 WTNT22 KNHC 220832 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ROSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172021 0900 UTC WED SEP 22 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 38.4W AT 22/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 38.4W AT 22/0900Z AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 38.1W FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 24.2N 39.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 25.5N 40.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 27.0N 41.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 28.4N 40.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 29.5N 38.8W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 30.1N 36.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 31.2N 31.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.4N 38.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI