Before the Storm Preparing in advance for hurricane season can determine not only how safely and comfortably you ride out the storm, but also how easily it is to handle the days and weeks after the storm has passed. Take a look at the information collected below to learn how you can prepare in the days and weeks before a hurricane. Plan your stay or evacuation: Stay Home: However, before you choose this option, make sure you know your elevation. If we experience a storm that may put a significant storm surge in your home, you need to look at the other options. Also, people in manufactured and mobile homes cannot use this option. Mobile homes and manufactured homes are not built to withstand the high winds associated with tropical storms and hurricanes. Stay With a Friend or Relative Who has a Safe Place: If this is your plan, make arrangements in advance. You need to make sure that where you are going is safe. It defeats the purpose of evacuating if you go to an unsafe place. Relocate Out of the Area: You may wish to travel out of harm’s way. Be sure to bring a road map and make sure that your car is full of fuel. Stay away from major bodies of water. Make arrangements in advance if you can. If you decide to use this option, go early, traffic will be heavy if you leave at the last minute, and you may not make it to your destination. Emergency Public Shelters: For more information on Emergency Shelters and a list of available Public Shelters please visit a county Public Library or Publix Super Market near you. Have a 72-Hour Survival Kit You should plan to be self-sufficient for at least 72 hours (3 days) during and after a disaster. You should anticipate no water, electrical power, or utilities for that period of time. To ensure the comfort of your family, whether at home or evacuated to another location please download and print the Hurricane Survival Kit (PDF).
...PHILIPPE REMAINS DISORGANIZED... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN BERMUDA ON FRIDAY... As of 8:00 PM AST Wed Oct 4 the center of Philippe was located near 23.1, -66.0 with movement N at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
Issued at 800 PM AST Wed Oct 04 2023
441 WTNT32 KNHC 042346 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Philippe Intermediate Advisory Number 46A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023 800 PM AST Wed Oct 04 2023 ...PHILIPPE REMAINS DISORGANIZED... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN BERMUDA ON FRIDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.1N 66.0W ABOUT 335 MI...535 KM N OF ST. THOMAS ABOUT 640 MI...1030 KM S OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests in eastern New England and Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress of Philippe. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was located near latitude 23.1 North, longitude 66.0 West. Philippe is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h). This general motion with an increase in forward speed is expected through Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Philippe will pass near Bermuda on Friday, and approach eastern New England and Atlantic Canada on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so. Some strengthening is possible on Friday and Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) to the east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Philippe can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml RAINFALL: Rainfall will begin to affect Bermuda on Thursday with rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches expected through Friday. These rainfall amounts may result in scattered flash flooding. Rainfall across the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico will continue to diminish during the next few hours. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda beginning Friday morning. SURF: Swells generated by Philippe will affect portions of the Atlantic coasts of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico for another day or so. Large swells are already affecting Bermuda from another weather system but will begin to increase further on Thursday as Philippe approaches the island. These conditions are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 04 Oct 2023 23:46:08 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 04 Oct 2023 21:23:05 GMT
000 ABNT20 KNHC 042343 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Wed Oct 4 2023 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Philippe, located a few hundred miles north of the Virgin Islands. Eastern Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa in a few days. Some slow development of this system is possible thereafter while it moves westward across the eastern tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Oct 04 2023
000 WTNT42 KNHC 042038 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Philippe Discussion Number 46 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023 500 PM AST Wed Oct 04 2023 Philippe still has an elongated circulation with discrete clusters of deep convection extending well to the east and south of the center. Aircraft and satellite-derived wind data suggest that the maximum winds have decreased a bit, and Philippe is barely a tropical storm. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft only measured peak 850-mb flight-level winds of 39 kt, and although SFMR winds were reported between 35-40 kt, a comparison with ASCAT data and a visual assessment from the flight crew indicate that these data were at least 10 kt too high. The consensus of all available data suggest that 35 kt is a more representative value for the initial intensity. The latest fixes indicate that Philippe has turned northward with an initial motion of 350/10 kt. A northward motion with an increase in forward speed is expected through the next 3 days while Philippe moves between a deep-layer trough just east of Florida and the subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic. After day 3, a larger trough is forecast to move across eastern North America and become negatively tilted, which is expected to cause Philippe to bend to the north-northwest when it reaches Atlantic Canada or eastern New England over the weekend. The track models (at least the ones that carry Philippe for the entire forecast period) remain in good agreement on this scenario, and the NHC track forecast is close to the HCCA consensus aid. The forecast for Philippe's intensity and structure remains complex. The 12Z GFS still shows a separate non-tropical low developing over the western Atlantic, with Philippe becoming absorbed by the warm front to the east of the low in 2-3 days. However, that appears to be an outlier scenario at this time since the ECMWF, UKMET, and Canadian models keep Philippe as a distinct and dominant low. Even if it doesn't become absorbed, Philippe is likely to become frontal by day 3, and the NHC forecast now shows the system as extratropical by Saturday afternoon. Little change in strength is likely during the next couple of days, but Philippe could strengthen a little due to baroclinic influences while it goes through extratropical transition. The NHC intensity forecast is below the intensity consensus aids for the first 48 hours, but then is between IVCN and the ECMWF after that time. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda beginning early Friday morning, and a Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect. Heavy rainfall will begin to affect the island on Thursday. 2. Philippe is likely to move over portions of Atlantic Canada and eastern New England, likely as a post-tropical cyclone, this weekend. Regardless of Philippe's intensity or structure, interests in those areas should monitor the storm's progress and be prepared for the possibility of strong winds and heavy rainfall. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 22.6N 65.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 05/0600Z 24.0N 66.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 05/1800Z 26.6N 66.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 06/0600Z 29.8N 65.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 06/1800Z 33.3N 65.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 07/0600Z 36.9N 65.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 07/1800Z 40.9N 65.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 08/1800Z 50.5N 69.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
Issued at 2100 UTC WED OCT 04 2023
000 FONT12 KNHC 042038 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 46 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172023 2100 UTC WED OCT 04 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 24(35) X(35) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 24(28) X(28) ST JOHN NB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 27(32) X(32) EASTPORT ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 41(45) 3(48) X(48) X(48) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER BERG
000 WTNT22 KNHC 042037 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 46 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172023 2100 UTC WED OCT 04 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 65.9W AT 04/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 180SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 65.9W AT 04/2100Z AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 65.8W FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 24.0N 66.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 26.6N 66.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 29.8N 65.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 150SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 33.3N 65.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...180NE 150SE 0SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 36.9N 65.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...240NE 210SE 60SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 40.9N 65.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...240NE 240SE 60SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 50.5N 69.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.6N 65.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 05/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG