Emergency Preparedness

TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE PREPARATION

Hurricane season begins June 1st of each year and ends November 30th. Florida can be threatened any time during this season.  This information will help you prepare for a hurricane. Please take the time to read this information carefully.

The following are some useful definitions:

• TROPICAL DEPRESSION has winds of less than 39 miles per hour or 34 knots.
• TROPICAL STORM has winds from 39 to 73 miles per hour or 34 to 63 knots.
• TROPICAL STORM “WARNING” once issued, can develop into a hurricane. 
• HURRICANE “WATCH” - a hurricane may threaten the area within 24-36 hours.
• HURRICANE “WARNING” - a hurricane is expected to strike the area within 24 hours or less.
• HURRICANE has winds of greater than 74 miles per hour or 64 knots.
            Category 1 74-95 MPH Minimal
            Category 2 95-110 MPH Moderate
            Category 3 111-130 Major
            Category 4 131-155 Extensive
            Category 5 156 MPH + Catastrophic

WHAT CAN YOU DO TO BE READY IN THE EVENT OF A DISASTER?

Before the Storm
Preparing in advance for hurricane season can determine not only how safely and comfortably you ride out the storm, but also how easily it is to handle the days and weeks after the storm has passed.  Take a look at the information collected below to learn how you can prepare in the days and weeks before a hurricane.

Plan your stay or evacuation:
Stay Home
: However, before you choose this option, make sure you know your elevation. If we experience a storm that may put a significant storm surge in your home, you need to look at the other options. Also, people in manufactured and mobile homes cannot use this option. Mobile homes and manufactured homes are not built to withstand the high winds associated with tropical storms and hurricanes.

Stay With a Friend or Relative Who has a Safe Place: If this is your plan, make arrangements in advance. You need to make sure that where you are going is safe. It defeats the purpose of evacuating if you go to an unsafe place.

Relocate Out of the Area: You may wish to travel out of harm’s way. Be sure to bring a road map and make sure that your car is full of fuel. Stay away from major bodies of water. Make arrangements in advance if you can. If you decide to use this option, go early, traffic will be heavy if you leave at the last minute, and you may not make it to your destination.

Emergency Public Shelters: For more information on Emergency Shelters and a list of available Public Shelters please visit a county Public Library or Publix Super Market near you.

Have a 72-Hour Survival Kit
You should plan to be self-sufficient for at least 72 hours (3 days) during and after a disaster. You should anticipate no water, electrical power, or utilities for that period of time. To ensure the comfort of your family, whether at home or evacuated to another location please download and print the Hurricane Survival Kit (PDF).

NHC Status Updates

Tropical Weather Outlook

Summary for Tropical Storm Philippe (AT2/AL172023)

Wed, 04 Oct 2023 23:46:34 GMT

...PHILIPPE REMAINS DISORGANIZED... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN BERMUDA ON FRIDAY... As of 8:00 PM AST Wed Oct 4 the center of Philippe was located near 23.1, -66.0 with movement N at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Tropical Storm Philippe Public Advisory Number 46A

Wed, 04 Oct 2023 23:46:34 GMT

Issued at 800 PM AST Wed Oct 04 2023


441 
WTNT32 KNHC 042346
TCPAT2
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Philippe Intermediate Advisory Number 46A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172023
800 PM AST Wed Oct 04 2023
 
...PHILIPPE REMAINS DISORGANIZED...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN BERMUDA ON FRIDAY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.1N 66.0W
ABOUT 335 MI...535 KM N OF ST. THOMAS
ABOUT 640 MI...1030 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
Interests in eastern New England and Atlantic Canada should monitor
the progress of Philippe.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was
located near latitude 23.1 North, longitude 66.0 West.  Philippe is
moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h).  This general motion
with an increase in forward speed is expected through Saturday.  On
the forecast track, the center of Philippe will pass near Bermuda 
on Friday, and approach eastern New England and Atlantic Canada on 
Saturday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. 
Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so.  
Some strengthening is possible on Friday and Saturday.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
to the east of the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Philippe can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml
 
RAINFALL:  Rainfall will begin to affect Bermuda on Thursday with
rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches expected through Friday.
 
These rainfall amounts may result in scattered flash flooding.
 
Rainfall across the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico
will continue to diminish during the next few hours.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda beginning
Friday morning.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Philippe will affect portions of the
Atlantic coasts of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands,
and Puerto Rico for another day or so.  Large swells are already
affecting Bermuda from another weather system but will begin to
increase further on Thursday as Philippe approaches the island.
These conditions are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
currents. Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
 

Tropical Storm Philippe Graphics

Wed, 04 Oct 2023 23:46:08 GMT

Tropical Storm Philippe 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 04 Oct 2023 23:46:08 GMT

Tropical Storm Philippe 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 04 Oct 2023 21:23:05 GMT

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

Wed, 04 Oct 2023 23:44:04 GMT


000
ABNT20 KNHC 042343
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Oct 4 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Philippe, located a few hundred miles north of the Virgin
Islands.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa in
a few days. Some slow development of this system is possible
thereafter while it moves westward across the eastern tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Tropical Storm Philippe Forecast Discussion Number 46

Wed, 04 Oct 2023 20:39:01 GMT

Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Oct 04 2023


000
WTNT42 KNHC 042038
TCDAT2
 
Tropical Storm Philippe Discussion Number  46
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172023
500 PM AST Wed Oct 04 2023
 
Philippe still has an elongated circulation with discrete clusters
of deep convection extending well to the east and south of the
center.  Aircraft and satellite-derived wind data suggest that the
maximum winds have decreased a bit, and Philippe is barely a
tropical storm.  An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
only measured peak 850-mb flight-level winds of 39 kt, and although
SFMR winds were reported between 35-40 kt, a comparison with ASCAT
data and a visual assessment from the flight crew indicate that
these data were at least 10 kt too high.  The consensus of all
available data suggest that 35 kt is a more representative value
for the initial intensity.
 
The latest fixes indicate that Philippe has turned northward with
an initial motion of 350/10 kt.  A northward motion with an
increase in forward speed is expected through the next 3 days while
Philippe moves between a deep-layer trough just east of Florida and 
the subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic.  After day 3, a 
larger trough is forecast to move across eastern North America and 
become negatively tilted, which is expected to cause Philippe to 
bend to the north-northwest when it reaches Atlantic Canada or 
eastern New England over the weekend.  The track models (at 
least the ones that carry Philippe for the entire forecast period) 
remain in good agreement on this scenario, and the NHC track 
forecast is close to the HCCA consensus aid.

The forecast for Philippe's intensity and structure remains complex. 
The 12Z GFS still shows a separate non-tropical low developing over 
the western Atlantic, with Philippe becoming absorbed by the warm 
front to the east of the low in 2-3 days.  However, that appears to 
be an outlier scenario at this time since the ECMWF, UKMET, and 
Canadian models keep Philippe as a distinct and dominant low.  Even 
if it doesn't become absorbed, Philippe is likely to become 
frontal by day 3, and the NHC forecast now shows the system as 
extratropical by Saturday afternoon.  Little change in strength is 
likely during the next couple of days, but Philippe could strengthen 
a little due to baroclinic influences while it goes through 
extratropical transition.  The NHC intensity forecast is below the 
intensity consensus aids for the first 48 hours, but then is between 
IVCN and the ECMWF after that time.

 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda beginning
early Friday morning, and a Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect. 
Heavy rainfall will begin to affect the island on Thursday. 
 
2. Philippe is likely to move over portions of Atlantic Canada and
eastern New England, likely as a post-tropical cyclone, this
weekend.  Regardless of Philippe's intensity or structure, interests 
in those areas should monitor the storm's progress and be prepared 
for the possibility of strong winds and heavy rainfall.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  04/2100Z 22.6N  65.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  05/0600Z 24.0N  66.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  05/1800Z 26.6N  66.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  06/0600Z 29.8N  65.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  06/1800Z 33.3N  65.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  07/0600Z 36.9N  65.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  07/1800Z 40.9N  65.9W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  08/1800Z 50.5N  69.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  09/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Berg
 

Tropical Storm Philippe Wind Speed Probabilities Number 46

Wed, 04 Oct 2023 20:38:30 GMT

Issued at 2100 UTC WED OCT 04 2023


000
FONT12 KNHC 042038
PWSAT2
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  46         
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172023               
2100 UTC WED OCT 04 2023                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE WAS LOCATED NEAR     
LATITUDE 22.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
EDDY POINT NS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   X( 6)
 
SABLE ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
HALIFAX NS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   X( 6)
 
YARMOUTH NS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)  24(35)   X(35)
YARMOUTH NS    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   X( 7)
 
MONCTON NB     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   X( 8)
 
ST JOHN NB     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  24(28)   X(28)
ST JOHN NB     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   X( 6)
 
EASTPORT ME    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  27(32)   X(32)
EASTPORT ME    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   X( 7)
 
BAR HARBOR ME  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)   X(11)
 
AUGUSTA ME     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   X( 6)
 
PORTLAND ME    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)
 
HYANNIS MA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
NANTUCKET MA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)
 
PROVIDENCE RI  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   4( 4)  41(45)   3(48)   X(48)   X(48)
BERMUDA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BERG                                                     

Tropical Storm Philippe Forecast Advisory Number 46

Wed, 04 Oct 2023 20:37:32 GMT

Issued at 2100 UTC WED OCT 04 2023


000
WTNT22 KNHC 042037
TCMAT2
 
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  46
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172023
2100 UTC WED OCT 04 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N  65.9W AT 04/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 180SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE  30SW  30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N  65.9W AT 04/2100Z
AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.1N  65.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 24.0N  66.1W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 150SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 26.6N  66.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 150SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 29.8N  65.7W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 150SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 33.3N  65.3W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...180NE 150SE   0SW 180NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 36.9N  65.4W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...240NE 210SE  60SW 240NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 40.9N  65.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...240NE 240SE  60SW  90NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 50.5N  69.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.6N  65.9W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 05/0000Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG